#周末行情分析

The current market consensus is that selling pressure has eased, but liquidity has not fully recovered yet. Therefore, the probability of a sideways correction this weekend seems slightly higher than a short-term violent rebound. However, as market sentiment gradually bottoms out, structural opportunities have already emerged.

I tend to believe that the market will follow a pattern of time-for-space sideways correction. The key focus should be on the trading volume near resistance levels—if mainstream coins can gently increase volume and stabilize at critical positions (for example, BTC consolidating above the $43,000-43,500 range), then the sustainability of subsequent rebounds will be stronger.

The two targets I am most concerned about this weekend are: BTC and NEAR

1. BTC: The "Safe Harbor," looking for signs of stabilization
As a market indicator, BTC's movement determines overall sentiment. I am watching whether it can form effective support in the $42,000-42,500 range and gradually test above $43,500. If during the weekend, there is a continuous 4-hour level of stabilization above $43,000 with increased trading volume, I will consider small positions in spot holdings during a pullback as a medium-term bottom position. But if it breaks below $42,000 and rebounds are weak, I will continue to observe.
2. NEAR: Ecosystem-driven, rebound elasticity may be stronger
I choose NEAR because its ecosystem activity has been high recently, and the impact of the USN event is gradually being digested by the market. The underlying technical narrative (sharding, developer growth) still has support. From a technical perspective, it has tested support multiple times around $3.2. If market sentiment warms up, it could rebound to the $3.8-4.0 range. I will try light positions in the $3.3-3.4 range, with a stop-loss below $3.1, aiming for a oversold rebound opportunity.

Trading Strategy: Gradual testing, strict discipline

My overall approach this weekend is cautious optimism, mainly controlling positions. Specific operations include:

· Position Management: Keep total positions below 30%, mainly in spot, avoiding high leverage.
· Entry Method: If a target I favor pulls back to support and shows signs of stabilization (such as small-timeframe candlestick patterns combined with RSI divergence), I will enter in two batches to avoid heavy one-time positions.
· Stop-Loss Setting: All positions will have clear stop-loss levels (generally 3%-5% below support) to protect principal safety.
· Focus on Altcoin Rotation: If BTC stabilizes, pay attention to recently oversold altcoins with solid fundamentals, such as APT, SEI, etc., but only in light positions, quick in and out, avoiding greed.

Risk Reminder and Mindset Advice

The current market is still in a sensitive period; any news or minor fluctuations can trigger volatility. Therefore, aggressive operations during the weekend, especially in derivatives trading, are not recommended. Patience is more important than frequent trading. If the market moves against expectations, I will choose to rest and observe, never hold through heavy positions.

This correction period is also a good time for us to reassess holdings, learn technical analysis, and focus on ecosystem developments. The bull market is not achieved overnight; a healthy market needs solid foundations. I hope everyone can stay calm amid volatility and be prepared before opportunities arise.