Recently, the volatility in the crypto market can ultimately be traced back to a presidential appointment or dismissal order from Washington.

Here's what happened. Previously, the market was generally optimistic that an official named Kevin Hassett might take over the Federal Reserve. Once he assumed the position, expectations of easing would follow, liquidity would be released, and risk assets like Bitcoin would naturally be driven higher. The $100,000 price target once seemed within reach.

But then a turning point occurred. The authorities suddenly changed their tone: let him continue in his current role. This statement directly shattered market expectations. In Polymarket's probability market, Hassett's chances of being elected plummeted, while another figure named Kevin Warsh quickly rose to nearly 60%.

This is what we call expectation management. Wall Street and the crypto circles are all speculating about the future. When expectations change, the entire pricing system must be re-evaluated.

What does a hawkish candidate imply? Simply put, interest rates will stay higher for longer. Liquidity won't loosen quickly; instead, it may remain tight. For risk assets like Bitcoin that rely on loose monetary policy to push prices up, this is a cold shower. Short-term gains are hindered, and market sentiment clearly weakens—this logic makes perfect sense.

However, one point needs clarification: this kind of volatility is mainly an emotional shock. From a fundamental perspective, personnel changes at the Federal Reserve are indeed important, but the development logic of the crypto market itself is more hardcore. The long-term trend of Bitcoin still depends on industry innovation, adoption rates, and the real macro liquidity situation, rather than being scared off by a single news piece.

But caution is also necessary. Macro black swan events can cause short-term fluctuations, and during such times, risk management becomes even more critical. Position size should be appropriate, stop-losses should be set properly, and a policy shift shouldn't cause you to be eliminated.

Overall, surviving in the crypto space requires remembering one principle: news is a catalyst, but the trend is the true ruler. Pay attention to policy developments, but also see the long-term direction clearly. No matter how turbulent the waters, protect your principal and wait for the next opportunity.