Faltering Fed Chair Nominee: The New Battle Between Rate Cut Expectations and Bitcoin Market Trends

【Blockchain Rhythm】Bitcoin surged towards the $100,000 mark in early 2026, but the market’s focus shifted from price to a decision in Washington.

Recently, Trump made a statement at the White House regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate, and he changed his stance. The outside world initially favored White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett to succeed current Chair Powell, but Trump suddenly expressed a preference for Hassett to stay in his current position, saying a transition would cause “serious concerns.” This change immediately caused a stir in the prediction markets.

According to Polymarket data, Hassett’s odds plummeted. Conversely, his main competitor, former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh, saw his chances of being elected rise to nearly 60%. This is not just a personnel change; it marks a watershed moment for the crypto market.

Why? The key lies in their completely different policy styles. Hassett is perceived by the market as a “dove”—favoring more accommodative monetary policy, which could mean an interest rate cut window opening in 2026, benefiting Bitcoin and other risk assets. Warsh, on the other hand, is an “hawk,” advocating for maintaining a relatively tight stance, with high interest rates likely to persist, putting short-term pressure on crypto assets.

Interestingly, Warsh has actually invested in crypto companies and served as an advisor to Anchorage, a institutional-grade crypto bank. But in terms of monetary policy orientation, his stance remains much more conservative than Hassett’s. Aurelie Barthere, Chief Research Analyst at Nansen, bluntly stated that Hassett has always been more friendly toward the crypto market.

So this change in candidate selection is essentially a re-pricing of market expectations for rate cuts and the outlook for risk assets.