2026-01-16 14:46:24

Recently, I revisited industry research institutions' annual summaries of the prediction market, and one phenomenon became super clear—the prediction market is no longer just a simple gambling tool. It has evolved into a macro asset hedging tool and the infrastructure for real-time news feedback.

From a data perspective, by 2025, the cumulative trading volume of prediction markets has already surpassed 51 billion USD, with open interest (OI) remaining stable around 13 billion USD. The entire market has formed a clear dual-competition pattern, with two major platforms firmly occupying market share.

What does this change indicate? The prediction market is transforming from a niche product into a more widespread risk pricing tool. Whether institutions or retail investors, they are beginning to see it as a window for hedging macro risks and tracking sudden events. Quite interesting.

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SchrodingerPrivateKey

· 01-18 04:39

$51 billion? The double-headed pattern is stable now, and this prediction market has really become a mainstream hedging tool. Institutions are also starting to play this, which shows that risk pricing should have been decentralized a long time ago. Just realized that this thing is no longer a gambler's playground, a bit of a late realization, huh. This data is rising quite rapidly, but with only $13 billion in open interest, liquidity still needs to continue increasing. Double-headed monopoly... feels like there's not much opportunity for new players, Polymarket and these two are really sitting pretty.

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GateUser-e19e9c10

· 01-16 23:19

510 billion in trading volume is indeed crazy, but the ones truly making money are still those two platforms, while retail investors are getting cut again.

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GhostWalletSleuth

· 01-16 15:13

510 billion has been poured in, and it really feels like this wave has turned sour, transforming from a gambler's playground into an institutional toolbox.

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NFTArchaeologis

· 01-16 15:11

51 billion USD... There's a nostalgic feeling of looking at ancient market trading volume records. The prediction market has upgraded from a gambling house to a financial infrastructure, and this process is essentially an evolution of the trust mechanism.

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BoredStaker

· 01-16 15:09

510 billion is still too small. Let's wait and see if there will be a breakout later. It still feels niche.

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DefiPlaybook

· 01-16 15:09

$51 billion in trading volume, $13 billion OI stability... What’s worth noting is the shift in the risk pricing mechanism behind it. The hedging logic of traditional finance is being reshaped on the chain.

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HashRateHustler

· 01-16 15:06

$51 billion? Wow, this growth rate is really outrageous. It should have been removed from the gambling tools label a long time ago.

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