Why Bitcoin Keeps Hitting a Wall at the 13% Mark: The Short-Term Holder 'Pochita True Form' Barrier Explained

Bitcoin is currently trading around $95.47K, marking a notable +9.76% surge over the past month—yet momentum keeps stalling at a critical psychological ceiling. The chart reveals something fascinating: every time buyers mount an attack, they encounter the same invisible barrier. This isn’t random. There’s a clear on-chain reason why rallies keep failing, and it all comes down to what traders are calling the “13% problem.”

The Real Culprit: Underwater Buyers Creating Selling Pressure

The answer lies in Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder Cost Basis data. This metric reveals the average entry price of recent Bitcoin buyers—essentially, where the newest cohort of participants decided to jump in. Right now, that level sits at approximately $99,790, meaning most recent buyers are currently underwater by about 13% from the current spot price.

Here’s the psychology: When investors see red on their portfolio, panic selling kicks in. Short-term holders are the fastest to react to volatility, offloading positions to cut losses rather than holding through downside swings. This automatic selling pressure acts like an invisible ceiling on the price chart, crushing every rally before it can build real momentum.

Looking at HODL Waves data confirms this behavior. The youngest cohort (1-day to 1-week holders) dropped from 6.38% of total supply to just 2.13% in the past month. Newer buyers aren’t accumulating—they’re bailing, which reinforces resistance long before Bitcoin even approaches $99,790.

Technical Structure Shows Buyers Present But Lacking Conviction

On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle formation—a pattern where lower highs and higher lows compress, signaling battle lines between bulls and bears. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator offers additional clues. CMF is rising alongside price, confirming that buying activity exists. However, it remains stuck below the zero line, meaning inflows aren’t yet strong enough to confirm trend strength or power through the triangle’s upper boundary.

Translation: Buyers are showing up to the fight, but they don’t have enough firepower to break through.

The Roadmap Forward: Where Bitcoin Goes From Here

Bitcoin has oscillated between $84,370 and $90,540 throughout late December, with each push toward the highs getting rejected. This perfectly aligns with the short-term holder cost basis ceiling. The next moves to watch are critical:

First resistance checkpoint: A move above $94,600 signals buyers are gaining ground.

The critical breakout level: If price reclaims $99,820 (the short-term holder cost basis), the 13% barrier shatters. Underwater holders finally see green, forced selling evaporates, and the supply pressure that’s been strangling every bounce dissolves. This is when momentum turns genuinely bullish.

Extended upside target: Once above $99,820, $107,420 becomes the next price magnet as buyers reassert control.

Downside danger zone: If momentum fails to hold, $84,370 serves as the first support defense. A daily close below $80,570 would signal a breakdown, reset the trend entirely for January, and extend the ranging market even lower.

The current setup perfectly explains why every Bitcoin bounce has been “the unlucky 13”—it’s not a technical pattern failure, it’s a supply problem rooted in recent buyer behavior. Break that ceiling, and everything changes.