Policy-driven replacement of the cycle pattern? The real logic behind Bitcoin's trend in 2025

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Recently, an interesting observation has emerged: the classic four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin seems to be increasingly failing.

Currently, the market has entered a completely different phase—policy signals have become the true dominant factor. In simple terms, the fundamental logic is that the impact of politics and macro policies on prices has clearly surpassed on-chain factors like halving.

This phenomenon is especially evident in 2025. The US stock market is surging aggressively, but Bitcoin has not kept up, and this is no coincidence. A closer look reveals that the market is now more driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than overall risk appetite. According to the old model, the cycle should be nearing its end in early 2026, but the actual trend is completely different—investor behavior indicates they are artificially delaying this process, with policy weight at its maximum.

The institutional perspective is even more straightforward: currently, fiscal stimulus, monetary, and fiscal boundaries are blurred, and the entire environment resembles the classic “financial repression.” Government spending is high, real interest rates are tightly suppressed, and traditional bonds and credit become much less attractive. Against this backdrop, the allocation value of digital assets is actually highlighted.

Looking ahead to 2026, this logic is likely to persist. Bitcoin’s performance will depend more on policy directions and regulatory developments, with structural legislation in the US crypto market being the most critical. While ETFs have provided long-term support for institutions, whether they can ultimately mobilize more capital depends on how policies evolve.