This wave of the market has left many people a bit confused, and some are even starting to doubt: Is the four-year cycle of Bitcoin really useless? Has the super cycle appeared, making all the previous rules invalid?

I have re-analyzed Bitcoin's candlestick charts over the past ten years, and the results are quite interesting. The cycle is still there, and it's even more precise than you think, but its temperament has changed.

Everyone says Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, but has anyone calculated exactly how many days it spans? Look at these peaks—2013 to 2017, and then to 2021. The time intervals between each bull market top are all between 1430 days and 1460 days. It’s almost like a clock.

Following this timeline forward, the next cycle peak should be around October 2025, and the next one after that around September 2029. So don’t rush to declare the cycle dead; the main framework’s time anchors haven’t moved at all.

However, there is a subtle point—while the timing hasn’t changed, the story of the rises and falls has.

**The strength of each rally is weaker than the last**

Why does this bull market always feel less intense than previous ones? The data makes it clear. In 2013, Bitcoin increased by nearly 1500% (specifically 1497%). By 2017, this increase shrank to 248%. In the last cycle of 2021, the growth further declined.

This is not an accident; it’s inevitable. As market capitalization grows and the market becomes heavier, it requires more capital to move it. A few tens of millions of dollars could double the price early on, but at this scale, the ceiling for growth naturally lowers.

The rhythm of the cycle is still there, but the script is definitely being rewritten.