#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 The US December inflation data is about to be released, and this could be a key short-term turning point.
Let's break down the market logic:
**If CPI < 2.7** Expectations for rate cuts will be at their maximum, liquidity easing will open up more room for imagination, and risk assets will enter a buying window. In this scenario, the market may become temporarily euphoric.
**If CPI > 2.7** The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals will become more apparent, inflation remains sticky, and the rate cut cycle may be delayed. The market is prone to risk aversion sentiment.
**If CPI = 2.7** The market is likely to enter a state of oscillation and stalemate, with short-term forces of bulls and bears struggling to determine a clear winner, and range-bound trading will continue.
**Key Reminder:** After the data is released, intense short-term battles are inevitable, but don’t be fooled by this volatility — the long-term fundamentals of supply and demand and the overall policy logic haven't changed, only the timetable might be adjusted. The most important thing is to manage risk properly; never use high leverage during such high-volatility periods, or you risk liquidation with a single shock. Cut losses when necessary; staying alive is the key to continuing to make money.
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failed_dev_successful_ape
· 01-16 11:48
Is this kind of data really decisive... I think it will all break 2.7
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The margin call warning is so timely, another bunch of people are going all-in around me
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Basically, it's betting on the Fed's mood. I never win when betting on this
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Wait, what's the probability that CPI historically exactly equals expectations? Feels like it won't be 2.7
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I've long abandoned risk control, now just waiting for everything to go to zero
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Short-term fluctuations can't confuse me, long-term holding can't confuse me about my losses
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This is when human nature is most visible—some go all-in, some run away
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Has the rate cut already been priced in by the market? The real black swan is if it can't be cut
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RiddleMaster
· 01-13 12:15
It's CPI again, and interest rate cuts again. I just want to ask, will it really decrease?
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MysteryBoxBuster
· 01-13 12:15
Damn, it's the same old story. Every time the CPI is called a "key turning point," but it turns out to be just hype.
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pvt_key_collector
· 01-13 12:07
It's another guessing game about data, essentially betting on the Fed's words.
Wait until the data is released; discussing these now is less useful than checking your positions first.
Constantly shouting about interest rate cuts, but in the end, you're just getting trapped.
High leverage at this time is really asking for trouble; I've seen too many people lose everything in one go.
CPI is like a weather forecast; whether it's accurate or not, you still have to survive.
#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 The US December inflation data is about to be released, and this could be a key short-term turning point.
Let's break down the market logic:
**If CPI < 2.7**
Expectations for rate cuts will be at their maximum, liquidity easing will open up more room for imagination, and risk assets will enter a buying window. In this scenario, the market may become temporarily euphoric.
**If CPI > 2.7**
The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals will become more apparent, inflation remains sticky, and the rate cut cycle may be delayed. The market is prone to risk aversion sentiment.
**If CPI = 2.7**
The market is likely to enter a state of oscillation and stalemate, with short-term forces of bulls and bears struggling to determine a clear winner, and range-bound trading will continue.
**Key Reminder:**
After the data is released, intense short-term battles are inevitable, but don’t be fooled by this volatility — the long-term fundamentals of supply and demand and the overall policy logic haven't changed, only the timetable might be adjusted. The most important thing is to manage risk properly; never use high leverage during such high-volatility periods, or you risk liquidation with a single shock. Cut losses when necessary; staying alive is the key to continuing to make money.