Hello everyone, today I want to start from the combination of on-chain data and market performance to give you an overview of the current market situation. I plan to approach this from four dimensions, believing it can help you see the situation clearly.

**What is the current state of macro liquidity?**

Since the Federal Reserve paused its balance sheet reduction in December 2025, the promised expansion plan hasn't immediately followed—this is an interesting signal. Marginally, liquidity has indeed loosened, but the magnitude is limited, so don't read too much into it. The Fed's balance sheet has shifted from active reduction to passive expansion, and in the short term, the asset price environment has improved. But looking at this data makes it clear: total assets rebounded slightly to $6.5 trillion, far from the scale during quantitative easing.

What does this indicate? This round of easing isn't a "flood" but a "technical repair." Traders need to be cautious of a risk: a pullback after the positive news is fully priced in. Many people like to bet heavily on liquidity easing, but I advise you to exercise restraint.

**On-chain fundamentals, details are crucial**

First, look at the MVRV Z-Score—this is a mirror of the overall holder cost structure. Currently, the reading is 1.19, still within the normal range. When will a true bottoming opportunity appear? It has to wait until the value drops below 1, even into negative territory. Only when it reaches the negative zone will the market be seriously undervalued, which would be a bottom of historic proportions. In other words, there is still room for further decline.

Next, examine the behavior data of long-term holders. Currently, this indicator is around 1.52. What does a value greater than 1 mean? It indicates that long-term holders (those holding over 155 days) are still generally profitable. These people could realize profits at any time. Think about it—if they start selling in large quantities, what will happen to the market? This risk is not small.

The logic of the indicator is simple: if the value is greater than 1, long-term holders can profit from selling; if less than 1, they are in a loss. If it drops below 0.8, that’s a true bottom signal. The current 1.52 is still some distance from that threshold.

**Implications for trading strategies**

Overall, macro liquidity repair is limited, and on-chain data still shows room for adjustment. If you have a long-term plan to hold Bitcoin, now may not be the best time—market signals suggest waiting. Don’t be fooled by short-term liquidity easing; patiently wait for clearer bottom signals.

The next key point is the release of US CPI data—this will directly influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy expectations and impact the liquidity environment. Keep a close eye on it.