2026-01-13 11:21:32

#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 Beijing Time, January 13th at 21:30, the US December CPI data will be officially released. Market expectations are for a month-over-month increase of 0.3%. This data has a significant impact on the volatility of global risk assets, especially for traders in stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies who are on high alert.

**The stock market reacts most directly**. If the core CPI month-over-month exceeds 0.45%, the S&P 500 may come under pressure and decline by 1.25%-2.5%; conversely, if it is below 0.30%, the index is expected to rise by 1.25%-1.75%. The underlying logic is that inflation strength directly influences Federal Reserve policy expectations.

**The forex market watches the dollar-yen pace**. The USD/JPY pair is usually the most sensitive. Surging inflation will push the dollar higher, but caution is needed: once approaching the 159 level, the Japanese Ministry of Finance may intervene. Conversely, if the data is moderate or even weak, the market will preemptively speculate on a Fed rate cut, and USD/JPY will adjust accordingly.

**The cryptocurrency market presents three possibilities**. In extreme cases, if CPI far exceeds expectations, with stubborn inflation and the Fed delaying rate cuts, Bitcoin could quickly break below the $90,000 support, triggering a broad market decline. But if the data aligns with or slightly deviates from expectations, after short-term intense volatility, if Bitcoin stabilizes above $90,000, the probability of a rebound will significantly increase—this is the "bad news has been digested" scenario. The most optimistic situation is that the data signals a slowdown in inflation, prompting the market to preemptively bet on the start of a rate cut cycle, and Bitcoin may break through previous resistance levels, initiating a strong rebound.

Tonight, traders worldwide will be focused on that data in Washington.

BTC-3,62%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

23 Likes

Reward
23
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MerkleTreeHugger

· 01-16 09:12

It's the same CPI game again. Where's the soft landing we promised? Bitcoin needs to stay above 90k, or tonight will be a big cut. The moment the data is released is truly a gamble... but it feels like the market has already been fed enough, and bad news has been mostly digested. The USD/JPY will once again depend on the Japanese Ministry of Finance's mood. This show is really exhausting. Just wait and see, the real story unfolds at 10:30—either take off or dive.

View OriginalReply0

LowCapGemHunter

· 01-15 23:37

If tonight's CPI data is a huge miss, I'll go all-in on short positions. Anyway, if $90,000 breaks, there's no way to avoid it.

View OriginalReply0

OnchainHolmes

· 01-14 06:57

Bro, if the CPI tonight blows out of the water, I'll get hammered through 90,000 directly. This data feels like a ticking time bomb, just waiting to see who will get bloodied on the spot. Can the 90,000 line hold? Brothers, hold on to your handrails. I don't really believe the Japanese Ministry of Finance can truly stop the dollar; let's try 159. Honestly, it all depends on whether the Federal Reserve's mouth can hold firm to the end. Bitcoin will follow as a sacrificial offering.

View OriginalReply0

Whale_Whisperer

· 01-14 04:03

Another night that will decide our fate, and my wallet is already mentally prepared.

View OriginalReply0

zkProofInThePudding

· 01-13 11:44

Another life-and-death moment... Every time CPI data is released, it causes chaos worldwide. I've been watching that 90,000 level closely—either a breakout or a plunge, there's no middle ground. In the currency market, the Japanese Ministry of Finance is truly an invisible killer; they act as soon as the 159 level is touched. The USD side is playing too wildly, easy to reverse. It feels like after the data is released, there are only two outcomes—either great joy or great sorrow, no third option... I've heard the explanation that bad news is absorbed a hundred times over. No matter what, I have to keep an eye on it at 9:30 PM. What is sleep anyway?

View OriginalReply0

LiquidatedTwice

· 01-13 11:38

Waiting for 21:30 tonight, if the $90,000 level is broken, I’ll go all in on losing everything. A break means disaster, holding steady means takeoff, it all depends on how the Fed plays this round. If CPI drops below 0.30, it’s a completely different story. Are the bears afraid or not? This time, the bet is on inflation, actually betting on the Fed’s temper. Will 159 break or not? The Japanese Ministry of Finance will decide. Do both the dollar and Bitcoin have to listen to Japan? Interesting. Been holding at $90,000 all along. If it doesn’t take off or explodes, there’s no middle ground tonight.

View OriginalReply0

APY追逐者

· 01-13 11:37

It's that same data again. Can 90,000 hold, or does it depend on what the CPI says?

View OriginalReply0

OnchainDetectiveBing

· 01-13 11:36

Tonight, we must keep a close watch. If the 90,000 level is broken, the bears will truly come back to life.

View OriginalReply0

HodlOrRegret

· 01-13 11:33

Waiting for 21:30. If this CPI data is off the charts, my blood pressure will also skyrocket. If Bitcoin can't hold 90,000, just buy the dip. Anyway, a rebound is inevitable sooner or later. The Federal Reserve is once again relying on data to decide our fate. It's hilarious. Where's the promised interest rate cut? By the time it happens, the flowers will have withered. Really? The Japanese Ministry of Finance will still intervene in the currency market? That's a bold move.

View OriginalReply0