2026-01-13 00:28:09

Prediction market signals emerging shift in U.S. political landscape: Kalshi's trading data shows 43% probability that Congress will pass legislation restricting stock trading by members before 2027. This metric reflects market participants' assessment of how seriously policymakers are tackling insider trading concerns. For crypto traders and institutions, such regulatory momentum matters—historical pattern shows policy changes in traditional finance often ripple into digital asset oversight. The timeline remains fluid, but the upward probability trajectory suggests growing political consensus around tighter restrictions.

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WenAirdrop

· 01-15 22:17

43%? That's a bit low. It seems like those folks in Congress really can't change.

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0xOverleveraged

· 01-14 22:41

43%? That's an unbelievably low probability. Are those guys in Congress cutting their own leeks? Wake up, guys.

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BTCBeliefStation

· 01-13 00:58

43%? That's a decent probability, but the key is that once traditional finance regulations change, we'll definitely be affected as well. It's just historical patterns.

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GasFeeBarbecue

· 01-13 00:55

43%? What does this probability indicate? It seems Congress is still dithering. If they really want to block lawmakers from stock trading, they'll have to wait until the Year of the Monkey and the Horse.

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HodlTheDoor

· 01-13 00:47

43%? What does that probability indicate? The folks on Wall Street probably aren't worried at all... But when it filters into the crypto world, it gets complicated. I'll be watching.

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FreeRider

· 01-13 00:37

43% is still too optimistic, right? The folks in Congress are making crazy profits from stock trading themselves. Are they really willing to cut off their own financial sources?

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LadderToolGuy

· 01-13 00:37

43% this probability is honestly a bit low... Can that group in Congress really tie themselves up with a rope? I think it's a stretch. But on the other hand, whenever there's a slight movement in traditional finance, our crypto circle gets tense right away. We've seen this routine before.

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