Recently, the crypto world has been buzzing. Analyst Samson Moe released a prediction: by 2026, Elon Musk will significantly increase his Bitcoin holdings, even hinting that the price could reach seven figures. Once this news broke, the community immediately split into two camps—one cheering "Takeoff," and the other criticizing it as "Hype."

Honestly, this isn't baseless. Musk's influence in the crypto space is indeed beyond imagination. In 2021, a single tweet caused Dogecoin's market cap to soar to $4 billion, and later, his comments on Bitcoin's energy consumption caused the market to evaporate $200 billion within 24 hours. Such market influence is rare globally.

More importantly, there are concrete data points. Tesla and SpaceX already hold over 19,000 Bitcoin, worth over $2.2 billion at current prices. From this perspective, the claim that he is "fully betting" on Bitcoin has at least some basis in reality.

But we need to stay clear-headed—don't be blinded by the concept of "Bitcoin reaching a million dollars." My judgment is: Musk's increased Bitcoin holdings by 2026 are highly likely to happen, but for the price to truly break the million-dollar mark, at least two core conditions must be met simultaneously.

First is the continued influx of institutional funds. The crypto market is no longer driven solely by retail investors. Data from 2025 shows that traditional financial institutions and publicly listed companies are steadily increasing their Bitcoin allocations. This institutional-level participation is necessary to provide enough liquidity to support extreme price levels.

Second is a stable policy environment. Regulatory uncertainty remains the biggest variable affecting institutional entry. Only when major global economies adopt a clear and friendly attitude toward crypto assets will institutions feel confident to enlarge their positions.

Overall, Musk's further involvement is almost inevitable, but how high the price can go depends on the degree of cooperation between these two conditions.