Recently, I met with a friend who has been deeply involved in the crypto market for nearly eight years. As he watched the market trends, he shook his head and sighed. He said something that left a deep impression on me: "It looks lively, with gold, stocks, and Bitcoin all rising. But the big funds have long since pulled out, and now those still adding are basically retail investors passing the baton to each other."

This sentence immediately brought my thoughts back to the crazy times of 2021. When Bitcoin surged close to $70,000, a few friends couldn’t resist the market’s temptation and dove in, chasing the high. And what happened? Not long after, their accounts shrank by half.

Why is it that the most lively times are often the most dangerous?

Later, he shared three very insightful reasons with me.

**First: The market is like a water reservoir; a rapid surge is actually just releasing water**

Look, a sharp rise isn’t some lucky break, but a carefully designed trap—drawing in more and more emotional investors. When everyone sees the profit potential and keeps adding, the water level rises to a dangerous height. Once the big players loosen their grip, the water can drain instantly.

Looking back at history, how fast did the crashes on 3·12 and other major dips happen? It was a speed that couldn’t even be stopped. But recovery? That takes a long, long time. The reason is simple: releasing water happens in an instant, but filling the reservoir depends on countless retail investors stacking it up little by little.

**Second: The "tenfold myth" behind altcoins**

Many projects package themselves with dazzling marketing, often claiming "ten times potential" or "hundred times room." It sounds very tempting, but once big funds decide to withdraw, the price collapses to a level where you don’t even dare to look at the chart. Institutions and major players don’t care whether the project can survive; they only care about one thing—are there enough people willing to buy at high prices? When liquidity dries up, what’s left are retail investors consuming each other, ultimately losing everything.

**Third: A more subtle signal—everything is rising, yet it’s the biggest trap**

When you suddenly realize almost everything is going up—stocks, Bitcoin, Ethereum, various altcoins—this isn’t safety, but risk quietly accumulating. I’ve personally fallen for this trap before. Back then, I thought I could keep pushing forward, but in the end, I couldn’t bear it anymore and was forced to sell at a loss.

Institutional greed is rational; they know when to take profits. But retail investors’ greed often stems from a illusion—"I can definitely get out in time." The moments when you need to stay calm are precisely when the market is hottest, full of stories, and the profit potential is at its peak.

It takes a long time for the market to rise, but a crash? It can happen overnight.

Stability is truly more important than anything else.