Last night I planned to rest early, but I ended up diving into on-chain data for LUNC and never came out. I drank three cups of coffee, my eyes strained and sore, and the final data analysis I compiled caused my heart rate to spike. This needs to be clarified, especially for those holding LUNC: if a large-scale return of funds related to TFL victims truly occurs, we may face an extreme crossroads — either soaring to new heights or crashing straight through the floor.

Let's first review the background. After the Terra ecosystem collapsed, the funds involved with TFL victims have been stuck in freezing and liquidation procedures. The court previously issued a ruling approving the handling of some assets through restarting certain cross-chain channels, and explicitly mentioned the destruction of 150 million related tokens. Recently, community discussions have been very active, and these dormant funds are about to be officially unfrozen — this is no small number, directly affecting LUNC's circulating supply and market sentiment.

My key discovery from late-night data digging reveals two possible development paths. I will present my final judgment last, so you can listen to the ideas first and then share your opinions.

**Scenario 1: Large-scale destruction really happens**

From a basic logic standpoint, this is the most exciting scenario. After all, the core narrative of LUNC revolves around token burns and supply contraction. By mid-2025, the total destroyed tokens have exceeded 410 billion, and with the support of major trading platforms, there have been multiple large burn events. Each significant burn tends to trigger a short-term rally driven by market sentiment.

If a considerable portion of the returned funds are directly burned or locked according to the established plan, the supply-side pressure will be significantly alleviated. Coupled with the market’s current sensitivity to supply reduction narratives, this could easily spark a wave of buying momentum. Especially if the burn scale is large enough to alter long-term supply expectations, this moment could serve as a pivotal turning point.

**Scenario 2: Liquidity shock**

On the other hand, there is another risk that might be underestimated. If these unfrozen funds are returned as liquidity rather than being burned, a large influx of LUNC into the market could occur in the short term. During this process, early victims and recent holders will be in a highly asymmetric psychological state — one side eager to liquidate quickly for compensation, the other potentially facing absorption pressure.

In this case, the market supply will suddenly increase, and if demand does not expand in tandem, a price decline becomes almost inevitable. This process could be quite rapid and intense, especially if the timing of fund returns is highly concentrated.

Overall, the key depends on the specific method of fund unfreezing — whether it leans toward destruction and supply reduction or more toward liquidity return. The market is currently in a period of information waiting, and the outcome of this wait could determine LUNC’s trajectory over the coming months. Regardless of which scenario unfolds, this is a critical point to watch closely.