For those betting everything stays quiet: geopolitical tensions don't usually resolve themselves. When regional conflicts escalate over extended periods, markets start pricing in the risk premium. Historical patterns show that unresolved nuclear standoffs tend to create volatility spikes in commodities, energy prices, and risk-sensitive assets like crypto. The market doesn't wait for headlines—it reacts to mounting pressure and uncertainty. Whether through diplomacy or harder measures, these situations eventually reach some form of resolution, and that transition period is when things move sharply.