The global financial market landscape has undergone significant changes at the start of 2026. On January 12, the US dollar index fell to 98.82, marking the deepest annual decline since 2017. Behind this adjustment is an escalating power struggle between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell.

On the surface, the conflict stems from the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve building, but in essence, Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. In addition to exerting pressure through judicial investigations, he has also attempted to bypass the Fed by launching a "mortgage version of QE" and setting credit card interest rate caps. These actions constitute direct interventions in monetary policy. Disagreements within the Federal Reserve have also reached their highest level in three years, leading to a policy deadlock.

This political standoff quickly transmitted to the markets. US stock index futures plummeted, with Nasdaq futures dropping over 0.9%. Japan saw over $20 billion in foreign debt sold in a single week, and overseas capital accelerated the withdrawal from US assets. Conversely, safe-haven assets performed remarkably well—gold in London briefly broke through $4,601.38 per ounce, hitting a record high. Asian stock markets also collectively rose as capital searched for new safe-haven options.

Warnings from institutions continue to grow louder. BlackRock has taken a clear stance on reducing US debt holdings, while Lagarde explicitly stated that the era of "American exceptionalism" has ended. JPMorgan predicts that the dollar and US debt will continue to face pressure. History offers a reference—Nixon’s intervention in the Federal Reserve once led to a decade of stagflation. Today’s US economy also shows signs of fatigue: weak non-farm payroll data and rising unemployment rates. Blind interest rate cuts could repeat past mistakes.

The core of this struggle is a confrontation between the independence of the Federal Reserve and political pressure, as well as a test of the dollar’s credibility. The European Central Bank has issued warnings, pointing out that a series of actions by the White House are undermining the dollar’s dominant position. Global capital is beginning to shift from dollar assets toward diversified safe-haven assets.

What does this mean for investors participating in the global markets? Will the dollar depreciation trend continue? Can gold keep rising? In an environment of increasing uncertainty around Federal Reserve policies, how will the crypto market evolve? These questions warrant in-depth reflection.