In early 2026, the US financial markets experienced a rare turbulence. As policy battles intensify, global capital markets have responded with concrete actions.

Data shows that the situation is indeed changing. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline within a month; S&P 500 futures plummeted by 0.7%; and the 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.20%. What does this reflect? Institutional investors are accelerating their asset reallocation.

Major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Invesco, and Lombard Odier are collectively bearish on the dollar and US bonds, turning their favor toward European and Asian assets. This is no coincidence. The risk of yield curve steepening has been highlighted by multiple institutions—long-term interest rates are expected to far exceed short-term rates, which typically signals an economic slowdown or changing inflation expectations.

A deeper issue lies in the changing independence of central banks. The pace of de-dollarization among global central banks is clearly accelerating, with the dollar’s share in foreign exchange reserves dropping to a new low of 40%. What does this number mean? It indicates that the foundation of traditional dollar dominance is weakening. Historically, pressure from Nixon-era interest rate cuts ultimately triggered a decade-long stagflation, offering a profound lesson.

Gold has become the market’s new safe haven. After a 65% surge in 2025, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have issued new forecasts: in 2026, gold prices are expected to hit $6,000 per ounce. Macro traders are also increasing their short positions on the dollar, further boosting the appeal of precious metals.

However, the market is not entirely bearish. Some institutions believe that the continued AI boom and relatively ample liquidity in US debt still present buying opportunities for dollar assets. The debate between bulls and bears is intensifying.

At its core, this confrontation is a political and economic game. Against the backdrop of waning US influence, investors are re-evaluating asset allocations—whether to shift toward gold and non-US assets or to continue holding dollar positions. This choice could profoundly impact your investment returns in 2026.