2026-01-12 21:44:24

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Storm in silence! The wide fluctuation of Bitcoin at the level of 9万 — is it calm before the storm or a turning point in the trend?

The current market is driven by two opposing forces: uncertainty in external macroeconomic policy and structural changes within internal funds.
1. Macroeconomic policy: two major "uncertainties" hang in the air, and the market is in a wait-and-see mode
● The impact of last Friday’s unemployment data has already been absorbed by the market, but new uncertainties are accumulating:
The U.S. Supreme Court decision regarding tariffs remains unresolved: the ruling, which was supposed to be announced on January 9, concerning the legality of the global tariffs implemented by former President Trump, has been postponed. This decision could involve hundreds of billions of dollars, and its uncertainty directly causes large players to stay put, with the market in a "calm" state with periodic pauses.
● Federal Reserve policy and leadership changes: stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data have reduced expectations for a radical rate cut in March, creating short-term pressure on risk assets. At the same time, discussions about the new Fed chair candidate add uncertainty about future policy.
2. Internal market: ETF fund outflows, cautious sentiment among institutional players at the beginning of the year — important signals. Data shows that at the start of 2026, there was a net outflow of over 10 billion dollars from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. This reversed the short-term inflow trend in January, indicating that some institutional funds took profits after the price rebound or remained cautious, exerting immediate pressure on the market for growth.
3. Long-term perspective: during periods of fluctuation, disagreements about the direction arise, and institutional opinions diverge. On one hand, research heads, such as CoinShares, believe that strong macroeconomic data delay rate cuts, which short-term puts downward pressure on the price. On the other hand, analysts believe that previous sales due to tax withdrawals and fears of index exclusion have almost exhausted, and the market structure is becoming healthier. More optimistic views state that once Bitcoin clearly breaks the psychological level of 95,000 dollars, systematic buying will resume, opening the way to six-figure prices.
From a technical standpoint, levels of 90,000 dollars (BTC) and 3,100 dollars (ETH) have become key battlegrounds between buyers and sellers at the beginning of the week; their movement will determine whether the fluctuation range turns into a one-sided trend. On the news side, political vacuum and fund outflows create double pressure, but the market is also absorbing these negatives. In the context of high uncertainty, action recommendations:
1. Reduce trading frequency, improve position quality: during periods of fluctuation, frequent operations risk losses on both sides. Cut unnecessary position openings, focus on monitoring key levels for attack and defense.
2. Use the "two-hand" strategy: do not fixate on predicting the direction. Plan ahead: what to do if the price breaks the upper boundary of the range — how to add to the position; if the price drops below — how to limit losses or re-enter the market. Wait for the market to determine the direction itself.
3. Carefully control risks, monitor anomalies on the chain: especially regarding Ethereum, consider short-term overheating risks that may influence decisions. It’s better to miss a potential rebound than to get caught in a deep correction.
4. Have enough cash on hand, wait for the "golden" moment: before important political decisions (tariff decisions, Fed actions) it is crucial to maintain a sufficient reserve of "ammunition." True trend opportunities usually appear after uncertainty is lifted.

BTC1,55%

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GateUser-a222caa3

2026-01-12 17:53:38

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Storm in Silence! Bitcoin swings within a wide range, surpassing 90,000—is this the calm before the storm or a trend reversal point?

The current market is dominated by two major conflicting forces: external macro policy uncertainties and internal structural changes in funds.
1. Macro Policies: Two major “uncertainties” loom, market remains cautious
● The impact of last Friday’s non-farm payroll data has been absorbed by the market, but new uncertainties are accumulating:
The U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff ruling remains pending: The Supreme Court decision on the legality of former President Trump’s global tariffs, originally scheduled for January 9, has been postponed. This ruling, which could involve over hundreds of billions of dollars in funds, is creating uncertainty that directly causes large capital to hold back, leading to a “pause-like” market stagnation.
● Federal Reserve policy path and leadership changes: Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data have reduced market expectations of aggressive rate cuts in March, putting short-term pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, discussions about the next Fed chair add further uncertainty to policy outlooks.
2. Market Internal Dynamics: ETF fund outflows and cautious institutional sentiment at the start of the year highlight a concerning liquidity trend. Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced over $1 billion in net outflows in early 2026. This reversed the brief inflow trend seen in early January, indicating some institutional funds are taking profits or remaining cautious after price rebounds, exerting direct liquidity pressure on the market’s upward movement.
3. Long-term Perspective: Diverging opinions amid volatility, with institutional views split. On one hand, research heads from firms like CoinShares believe that strong macroeconomic data have delayed rate cuts, exerting short-term downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, some analysts think that selling pressure caused by tax-related sell-offs and index exclusions has largely been exhausted, and market structure is becoming healthier. More optimistic views suggest that once Bitcoin clearly breaks through the psychological threshold of $95,000, systemic buying will re-enter, opening the door to six-figure prices.

From a technical standpoint, $90,000 (BTC) and $3,100 (ETH) have become the battlegrounds at the start of this week, and their gains or losses will determine whether the current box range will evolve into a one-sided trend. From a news perspective, policy vacuum and capital outflows form a double suppression, but the market is also digesting these negatives. Given the current high uncertainty, operational points are: 1. Reduce trading frequency and improve position quality: In a choppy market, frequent trading can lead to losses on both sides. Minimize unnecessary opening of positions and focus on observing key support and resistance levels. 2. Adopt a “two-pronged” contingency plan: Don’t insist on predicting the direction. Plan ahead: how to add positions if volume breaks above the box top; how to cut losses or reverse if it breaks below the box bottom. Then, let the market find its own direction. 3. Emphasize risk management and monitor on-chain anomalies: Especially for Ethereum, incorporate short-term overheating risks revealed by on-chain data into decision-making. Better to miss a potential rebound than to fall into a deep correction that may come. 4. Keep sufficient cash reserves and wait for the golden entry point: Before major policy uncertainties (tariff rulings, Fed movements) are resolved, maintaining ample “ammunition” is crucial. True trend opportunities often only become clear after uncertainties are eliminated.

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