The risk of stablecoin volatility is increasing, and on-chain abnormal signals are worth paying attention to.

Release Date: 2026.01.12 (Monday · In-Depth Analysis Edition) Author: On-Chain Observer

Recently, something subtle has been happening in the crypto world—the market is unusually quiet. BTC hovers around $91.77K, with volatility remaining low, seemingly calm on the surface but with underlying currents. Combined with recent regulatory trends and on-chain anomalies, we need to reassess the potential risks within the stablecoin ecosystem.

1. The Behind-the-Scenes of the Market’s Strange Silence

When trading volume dries up and volatility hits new lows, there are usually two possibilities: one is the buildup before a major move, and the other is the market digesting unknown risks.

From the latest data, BTC is currently priced at $91.77K, but the market lacks direction. This “standoff” often indicates that a structural change is imminent. And this change is likely triggered by the stablecoin ecosystem.

2. On-Chain Signals: Smart Money is “Changing Blood”

Spring water warms ducks early. We have detected several warning signals:

USDC issuance surges

Recently, Coinbase’s USDC issuance has accelerated sharply, with circulation reaching 7.444 billion tokens. This is no coincidence—institutional funds on Wall Street are quietly converting USDT into USDC, which is directly protected under US regulation.

Subtle changes in the OTC market

In OTC trading, the USDT to USD exchange rate has started to show a slight negative premium (around 0.998). Although the margin is small, in a calm market, this is like a subsonic wave before an earthquake—seemingly harmless but actually a dangerous signal.

3. Black Swan Scenario: Chain Reaction of Stablecoin Depegging

What happens if USDT experiences a 3% drop in value in the short term? For the crypto market, this would be a systemic shock:

Phase One: Panic Selling

Any negative news about stablecoin reserves or regulatory risks could trigger retail panic selling of USDT, causing the price to instantly fall to around 0.95.

Phase Two: Chain Liquidations

Approximately 90% of on-chain contracts are collateralized in USDT. If USDT’s purchasing power declines, insufficient collateral could automatically trigger liquidations. Even if BTC itself doesn’t fall, exchange systems might be forced to close long positions due to the collapse of the quote currency.

Phase Three: Liquidity Freezing

DeFi lending protocols (like Aave, Compound) could suspend operations due to oracle price chaos, causing liquidity across the entire crypto space to freeze instantly, making trading impossible.

4. Three Recommendations for Navigating Risks Safely

1. Optimize Stablecoin Structure

Check your holdings of stablecoins. If you hold a lot of idle USDT, consider converting some to USDC (currently circulating 7.444 billion) or withdrawing fiat. USDC, being directly regulated by US authorities, has stronger resilience against systemic risks.

2. Contract Risk Management

Review leverage configurations in your contract accounts. If using USDT as collateral, consider reducing leverage below 2x or switching to asset-backed collateral (using BTC or other assets). This can help avoid forced liquidations due to short-term stablecoin fluctuations.

3. Continuous Monitoring of Key Indicators

Keep a close eye on transparency announcements from stablecoin issuers, regulatory developments, and on-chain data. If any abnormal signals appear, do not hesitate—security always takes precedence over gains.

5. Conclusion

Risks in the crypto space often come from the most inconspicuous places. Stablecoins have been viewed as hedging tools, but when they become conduits for systemic risk, everything changes. Better to be proactive than to wait for volatility to hit.

Tonight, take a moment to check your wallet composition—how much USDT, how much USDC? Prepare in advance; it’s always better than regretting later.