2026-01-12 20:20:45

Looking at BTC's 20% surge this wave, the market is full of voices chasing the high. But upon carefully reviewing the candlestick charts, I found a troublesome issue—trading volume has actually shrunk by over 70%.

This is the key point. On the four-hour chart, the RSI is already approaching the overbought zone, but on the one-hour level, the MACD histogram has already turned downward, a typical bearish divergence signal. All timeframes are rising, but the momentum on shorter cycles has long since exhausted. Mismatch between volume and price—such a rally has never been solid.

To put it simply, this looks more like a partial rebound lacking genuine follow-through rather than a trend reversal. Many people are immersed in the thrill of the daily chart's big gains but overlook these details.

**The risk of chasing longs now is too high**. My approach is to keep watching. If the price can retest and then hold above 0.25 USDT, I might consider a small position to try; but if it directly breaks below 0.255 USDT, then the short-term strength is essentially a false breakout. Impulsive trading at this point is probably just driven by emotions.

BTC0,27%

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MoodFollowsPrice

· 01-15 06:30

The market is shrinking so rapidly; chasing highs is really like offering vegetables. I'll watch for now and see.

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AlphaBrain

· 01-13 15:16

The concept of divergence between price and volume is spot on. I've seen it coming for a long time. Right now, the market is just a bunch of retail investors cutting each other's leeks.

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FUD_Whisperer

· 01-13 00:42

A 20% increase after a decrease in volume, I've seen this trick many times before, it will come back sooner or later.

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AirdropHunterWang

· 01-12 20:47

Even with such a strong decrease in volume, you still dare to chase, truly over the top. I'll just watch quietly to see how these people cry tomorrow. The divergence is so obvious, yet they still insist on going long, deserved. Only if 0.255 is broken through can we play; right now, there's no point. This wave is a waste of time, let's wait and see.

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GasFeeNightmare

· 01-12 20:45

I saw the divergence between price and volume early on, but some people still insist on chasing... A 70% decrease in trading volume can't be justified.

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SellTheBounce

· 01-12 20:45

The volume has shrunk to this extent; whether it rebounds or not, it doesn't really matter anymore. The bagholders should wake up. People chasing highs, there's always a lower point waiting for you. Even with such obvious bearish divergence, some still dare to add positions—that's human weakness. Once 0.255 breaks, you'll know I wasn't wrong; buying the dip after a fall is the real deal. Watching this group of people excited, I just laugh. History tells us that when volume and price don't match, nothing good comes of it. Sell on rebounds; if there's no trend, don't be greedy.

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failed_dev_successful_ape

· 01-12 20:44

Even with such a sharp decline, still daring to chase, it's not bravery, it's true greed.

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CryptoPhoenix

· 01-12 20:42

The volume shrinks to this extent and still dare to chase, really just paying tuition with money. --- This kind of divergence, I was cut once before and will never forget it. Now I see it and feel uncomfortable all over. --- That's right, this wave is just虚胖, don't be fooled by the daily chart, wait until it stabilizes before talking. --- I'm also watching the 0.25 level, feeling it's the real acid test. Keep going. --- Always like this, can't act when it rises, regret deeply when it falls. Mindset, ah mindset. --- The upward trend with unconfirmed volume and price is indeed untrustworthy. I agree with this, continuing to observe. --- After fighting for so long, the biggest enemy now is probably your own greed. --- The bear market repeatedly teaches lessons. Learning to understand the details is worth it. --- Whether to break through 0.255 is the watershed. I can accept the logic of testing the waters with a small position. --- Reminds me of 2018 again, when it was also a false breakout like this. It was so painful.

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GamefiHarvester

· 01-12 20:33

The market shrinks and rises, this is a trap, and everyone is still having fun.

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MetaverseLandlord

· 01-12 20:29

The divergence between price and volume has been obvious to me for a long time. Now, those chasing the high are just playing with a mentality of rookie traders. --- Even with such a clear bearish divergence, some people are still celebrating. Luckily, I pulled out in time. --- Oh my, volume has shrunk by 70%, and you're still daring to push? Isn't this just giving away money? --- Just waiting to break through that level. Once it's broken, I'll run immediately. Don't be greedy. --- The key issue is short-term energy exhaustion. Many people really turn a blind eye to it. --- Didn't even notice the MACD turning around? I'm really speechless. --- You analyze quite thoroughly, but given the current situation, it's indeed safer to wait. --- Serious disconnect between volume and price. Such a rebound will collapse sooner or later. I'm not gambling anymore. --- Only consider after retesting above 0.25. One sentence hits the mark. --- Everywhere you hear about chasing the high, but turn around and get cut. It's always the same routine.

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