Why was the Bitcoin peak at $126,000 not the cycle's maximum, according to ISM data

Source: Yellow Original Title: Why the Bitcoin Peak at $126,000 Was Not the Cycle’s High, According to ISM Data

Original Link: Bitcoin has not yet reached its bull market peak despite hitting $126,000 last year, according to crypto analyst Plan C, who argues that the economic cycle — currently at 47.9 on the ISM PMI index — needs to rise to between 55 and 65 before the flagship cryptocurrency typically registers its cycle high.

What happened: analysis of the economic cycle

Plan C shared the analysis, noting that the historical peaks of BTC bull markets have occurred when the ISM PMI reaches between 55 and 65. The December reading of 47.9 remains below the critical threshold of 50, which normally precedes parabolic price movements.

The analyst was responding to fellow BTC analyst Sminston, who posted a chart showing that Bitcoin tends to rebound strongly once the ISM PMI exceeds the 50 level.

Sminston described the current market as “the spring that continues to compress.” His chart projected that BTC could rise well above $100,000 as the ISM PMI points toward the 65 level.

Why it matters: recovery threshold

The on-chain analysis platform Glassnode identified a sustained recovery of the short-term holder cost basis at $99,100 as the first significant confirmation of Bitcoin’s recovery.

The firm warned that the current structure resembles that of early 2022, when the prolonged inability to recover above this level preceded a deeper bearish extension.

CryptoQuant added that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, with a similar turn occurring between 2021 and 2022 before BTC reached its maximum.