Regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace in 2026, major Wall Street institutions have recently expressed divergent expectations, reflecting differing judgments on the economic outlook.

**Mainstream Consensus: Moderate Double Cuts**

Goldman Sachs's view is most representative—expecting one rate cut in March and another in June, each by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to the 3.00%-3.25% range by the end of the year. This institution is also optimistic about economic growth, projecting a 2%-2.5% increase. Major institutions like Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Nomura, and Barclays generally agree on this rate cut magnitude, with slight adjustments to the timing. For example, Nomura predicts cuts in June and September, while Morgan Stanley favors January and April. However, it’s important to note that the probability of a rate cut in January is quite limited, so in reality, there will most likely be two rate cuts in 2026.

**Divergences at the Extremes**

Citibank takes a more aggressive stance, expecting three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, with the rate falling to 2.75%-3.00% by year-end, scheduled for January, March, and September. In contrast, JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank are more cautious, expecting only one 25 basis point cut, adopting a more conservative pace.

There are even more extreme views. Some analysts at HSBC and Standard Chartered believe there might be no rate cuts at all during the year, while Macquarie forecasts the possibility of rate hikes. Although these non-mainstream opinions carry lower probabilities, they are still worth noting. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a rate of about 3.4% by year-end, with a relatively moderate rate cut.

**Decisive Variables**

The pace of rate cuts will ultimately depend on three core factors: the speed of inflation decline, the resilience of the labor market, and the policy inclination of the new Federal Reserve Chair. The combination of these variables will directly determine how many rate cuts are possible in 2026.

The asset allocation implications are clear—if the mainstream moderate double cut scenario materializes, risk assets and cryptocurrencies will be supported; conversely, if rate cuts are delayed or not implemented at all, the US dollar and gold will perform better; if the aggressive three-cut scenario occurs, cryptocurrencies and growth stocks will exhibit greater resilience. Currently, the consensus is largely locked in at a maximum of two rate cuts in 2026, and this expectation has already been gradually priced into the market.