U.S. Bipartisan Effort to Legislate Restrictions on Government Officials' "Betting" Behavior in Prediction Markets

On Friday, a "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act" was introduced, led by Representative Rtchie Torres and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The bill aims to prohibit federal officials from using insider information to profit from betting in prediction markets related to government policies or political events.

The proposal is a direct response to recent public concerns over multiple unfair incidents in prediction markets. Critics point out that some government officials' trading activities in prediction markets may constitute insider trading, exploiting undisclosed "inside information" to gain improper benefits.

For example, a bet on the Polymarket prediction platform regarding the resignation of Venezuelan President Maduro received a payout of $400,000 and has been suspected of involving illegal betting with internal U.S. government information.

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who supports the bill, stated that if officials with insider information can profit from prediction markets, it could indirectly encourage interference in policy or event outcomes, leading to corruption and harming public interests.

Meanwhile, Tarek Mansour, CEO of the prediction market platform Kalshi, said that his platform has proactively enforced insider trading bans, but decentralized markets lacking regulation still have vulnerabilities.

Although some opponents argue that excessive restrictions on prediction markets could weaken their informational value, legislators pushing for the bill emphasize that safeguarding decision-making fairness and public trust in areas involving policy directions and government actions is far more important than market freedom itself.

Overall, this legislative initiative reflects the United States' efforts to strengthen regulation over emerging financial forms like prediction markets and the intersection with government power, aiming to define the boundaries for government officials' participation in prediction markets.

#预测市场 #Insider trading