Organizational Withdrawal Crisis: Bitcoin and Ethereum Enter "Protection Mode" as US ETF Turns Away

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing the final weeks of 2025 with extreme caution. After a lively start to the year, the latest on-chain indicators show a clear shift: the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF funds in the US – the “pillars” of the market throughout the year – are now in a continuous outflow state since early November.

The main growth driver has been “cut off.” Instead of the usual speculative buying or FOMO-driven sentiment, the current market is dominated by capital preservation and extremely cautious observation, pushing the leading assets into a defensive stance.

Warning Signals from Prices: Bitcoin and Ethereum Under Pressure

According to today’s updated data, Bitcoin is trading around $90.21K with a 24-hour decrease of -0.19%, while Ethereum is at $3.08K with a decline of -0.51% over the same period. These figures more clearly reflect the loss of momentum among institutional funds.

Bitcoin has fallen below the psychological $100,000 mark in recent weeks, dropping to around $87,500 and now showing little chance of a strong rebound. The recent rally to $92,000–$93,000 quickly collapsed due to insufficient buying volume support. Since mid-December, BTC has been “trapped” within a narrow range of $85,000–$89,000, with weak liquidity unable to break out.

Ethereum’s situation is even worse. After falling below $3,500 in early November, rebounds have been unsustainable. ETH has been repeatedly pushed back from the $3,000 level, reflecting cautious sentiment towards high-volatility assets.

The Absence of the “Super Committee” and Chain Reaction Effects

The so-called “absence” of ETF capital flow is not an exaggeration. According to on-chain platform analyses, the 30-day average of net capital flow into US Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs turned negative early in November, and this trend has persisted without signs of reversal.

This is not a “storm” over a few trading sessions but a deep structural trend – reflecting Wall Street’s indifference towards digital assets. Amid global stock markets mired in policy and macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional funds are “strategically retreating” and prioritizing capital protection over high returns.

There is a certain lag between the spot market (spot) and ETF reactions. When selling pressure began in the spot market from mid-October, it took several weeks to “permeate” into fund allocation decisions. Now, this situation is self-sustaining and amplifying itself.

Market-Wide Collapse: Capitalization Plummets

The weakness is not limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is spreading like a flood:

Global crypto market capitalization is currently around $2.96 trillion USD, a sharp decline from $3.7 trillion USD in early November – nearly $740 billion USD wiped out in less than two months. Since mid-November, this figure has mostly hovered between 2.9–3.2 trillion USD, indicating a “pause button” mechanism in the market.

Altcoins are hit even harder: The CMC20 index is currently around 184 points, down 30% from October’s peak, showing that large-cap coins are under significant pressure. Capital is “fleeing” from altcoins and “converging” into Bitcoin – a typical characteristic of a risk-off phase, where investors prefer to “stay safe” rather than seek opportunities.

Short-Term Scenario: Is the Market Going to Stay Flat?

Overall, all technical indicators, sentiment, and capital flows have yet to signal a clear reversal. The current market seems to be entering a defensive accumulation phase or a short-term “hibernation.”

With ETF funds – one of the biggest “pumps” of the year – in a continuous outflow, it is very unlikely to see a rally in the coming weeks of 2025. The most probable scenario is that the market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range (choppy market) to absorb remaining selling pressure.

To break the current deadlock, the market needs new catalysts – possibly positive macro news or a decisive return of institutional capital. Until then, investors should prioritize careful observation and risk management rather than trying to predict market bottoms amid declining liquidity.