#2026年比特币价格展望 What will BTC do in 2026?

It looks like we should prepare for a long-term hold. According to assessments from multiple institutions, the overall trend for the year is expected to be sideways upward, with the core range estimated between $120,000 and $170,000, and the year-end target likely around $150,000. However, this depends on three key variables: how the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, where capital flows are headed, and how regulatory policies evolve.

**Three Possible Trends**

What is the most likely scenario (50% probability)? In the first half of the year, fluctuating between $82,000 and $92,000 as the market builds a bottom, then after Q2, as liquidity begins to loosen, prices will gradually rise, culminating in a year-end surge to $150,000.

What if the market is more optimistic? Excess liquidity release + aggressive institutional allocation could push the price past $200,000 by year-end. This scenario has about a 30% chance.

A pessimistic scenario also needs consideration—if inflation rebounds forcing the central bank to hike interest rates, or if risk assets crash overall, BTC could be driven down to $60,000–$80,000 to find a bottom. Although the probability is only 20%, it cannot be ignored.

**Key Deciding Factors**

The continuous influx of spot ETFs and accelerated institutional allocations are the main supports for the price. Unlike in the past, after the 2024 halving, the magic of the four-year cycle is waning, with macro factors and institutional funds taking the lead.

The pace of Fed rate cuts is the biggest external variable—market liquidity directly influences whether funds are willing to enter the crypto market. Additionally, regulatory clarity in the US and other regions is crucial; a friendly regulatory environment affects whether institutions dare to enter in large numbers.

**Institutional Perspectives**

Standard Chartered and Bernstein have set a year-end target of $150,000; Fundstrat is more aggressive, estimating $200,000–$250,000; VanEck expects a new high after consolidation; Benjamin Cowen believes a bottom at $60,000–$70,000 is necessary before a rebound. Opinions vary, but the median still points around $150,000.

**Technical Key Levels**

Support levels: $91,000, $82,000, and below that, the 200-week moving average around $60,000–$70,000. Resistance levels: $94,000, $100,000, $120,000.

In terms of rhythm, volatility was low in the first half of the year mainly due to shakeouts and reaccumulation. Once macro liquidity and capital conditions improve in the second half, upward momentum should significantly strengthen.

**Safer Trading Strategies**

In the short term, watch the resistance at $94,000—if broken, target $100,000; if it falls below $91,000, be alert for a dip to $82,000. Remember one principle: strictly control leverage, don’t gamble with what you can’t afford to lose.

The long-term strategy is to build positions gradually. If a correction drops below $80,000, increase allocation. Prioritize spot holdings and ETFs, and stay away from high-leverage setups.

Finally, the risk management checklist: closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, ETF capital flows, and regulatory news—these three indicators can essentially tell you what’s coming next.