As of January 9, 2026, 21:45 (data just released), the US December non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations + a significant downward revision from previous figures, and the unemployment rate slightly decreased, which cannot hide the slowdown in the labor market. This is short-term bullish for the crypto market (strengthening rate cut expectations, weakening dollar), but not a trend reversal; medium to long-term factors remain constrained by ETF capital, regulation, and liquidity. Contracts should be executed strictly according to key price levels and volume.

Core Logic (Based on Jinshi Data, Trading Perspective)

1. Bullish Drivers: Added jobs of 50,000 fell short of expectations (60,000+), and the previous two months were revised downward by 76,000, reinforcing the expectation that "labor cooling and the Fed's rate cut window remains open"; CME interest rate futures indicate that the rate cut in 2026 will remain around 50BP, the dollar index faces short-term pressure, benefiting risk assets (including crypto); BTC is supported near 90,000, with the four-hour RSI breaking out of the oversold zone, indicating a technical rebound demand.
2. Bearish Constraints (Suppressing the Trend): Unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.4% (expected 4.5%), weakening the extreme pricing of "sharp deterioration in labor"; the probability of a rate cut in January remains close to zero, and the easing policy pace has not significantly accelerated; ETF net outflows, liquidity shrinkage of altcoins, and regulatory uncertainties (such as the stablecoin bill) have not been eliminated, making rebounds susceptible to selling pressure.

Key Trading and Risk Control References (Contract Perspective)

- Short-term: Watch resistance at $91,800-$92,000 for BTC. A volume breakout can be lightly longed with targets at $93,000-$94,000, stop-loss below $90,200; if resistance holds and prices fall back, switch to a sideways or bearish approach, attempting short positions on rallies.
- Medium to Long-term: Wait for the January Federal Reserve meeting and inflation data to confirm rate cut expectations; if subsequent employment data continues to worsen and inflation falls, gradually increase long positions; if inflation rebounds or regulation tightens, take profits promptly and switch to a short strategy.