How to interpret the altcoin dominance chart and BTC Dominance in 2025

BTC Dominance — one of the most important indicators that tracks the share of Bitcoin in the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market. The calculation formula is simple: BTC market capitalization divided by the total market capitalization of all crypto assets, multiplied by 100%.

As of (January 2026), the indicator stands at 55.87%, indicating Bitcoin’s dominant position, although pressure from alternative assets continues to increase.

What the Bitcoin Dominance Chart Shows

When we talk about altcoin dominance, it refers to the opposite scenario — the growth of second-tier token market caps due to the outflow of investments from BTC.

The Bitcoin dominance chart divides market cycles into several phases:

• Upward trend in dominance → investors seek safe havens, altcoins lose attractiveness
• Downward trend in dominance → active capital flow into alternative projects
• Sideways movement → uncertainty and anticipation of a breakthrough

Analysts use this indicator to determine market cycle phases: whether we are in a “Bitcoin season” or entering an “alt season” — when small-cap and mid-cap tokens show multiple-fold growth.

Where and How to Analyze BTC.D

Professional traders monitor the dominance chart on specialized platforms:

TradingView offers the BTC.D ticker with a full set of technical tools — here you can apply all standard indicators and draw your own support/resistance levels.

CoinMarketCap displays historical data in the Global Charts section, allowing comparison of the current value with past cycle periods.

CoinGecko provides a Market Cap Dominance tab with additional analytics on individual altcoins.

When interpreting the chart, it’s important to remember: if Bitcoin’s price is rising, but dominance is falling — this signals that altcoins are growing even faster. Conversely, (if BTC price falls and dominance rises), it indicates that altcoins are under even more pressure.

Scenarios for Dominance Development in the Current Cycle

Analysts identify several likely trajectories for the indicator’s further evolution:

Conservative scenario: growth to 58–62%

Occurs during macroeconomic uncertainty when investors prefer the most liquid and established asset. This dynamic is usually accompanied by decreased interest in experimental projects and memecoins.

Aggressive alt season: decline to 35–42%

Historically, such levels were observed in 2021, when DeFi, Web3 ecosystems, and social tokens experienced explosive growth. In the current context, this scenario is possible with the emergence of new trends (for example, mass adoption of AI integrations into blockchain or revolutionary scaling breakthroughs).

Sideways scenario: corridor of 50–54%

Most likely in the medium term, when the market balances between BTC growth and alt activity. Against the current level of 55.87%, fluctuations within 200–300 points are possible.

How Bitcoin Dominance Affects an Altcoin Portfolio

When BTC Dominance increases and moves above 52–53%, alternative assets generally lose value both against the dollar and especially against Bitcoin itself. Liquidity in alt trading pairs decreases, spreads widen, and volatility can become uncomfortable.

The reverse process occurs when dominance drops below 50%. This period is called an alt season — a window of opportunity when small-cap projects can show 2–10x growth within weeks or months. However, it’s important to remember: alt seasons rarely last long, and their peaks are often the best moments to lock in profits.

Practical Tips for Traders and Investors

Trend monitoring — track the direction of dominance on the weekly chart. If BTC dominance begins to grow, it’s a strong signal to reduce alt positions and shift your portfolio to a more conservative configuration.

Divergence detection — pay attention to situations where Bitcoin’s price falls but dominance rises (or vice versa). Such discrepancies often precede sharp movements in the alt market.

Comprehensive analysis — never rely solely on BTC Dominance. Combine the dominance chart with technical indicators (RSI, MACD), trading volume analysis, and volatility.

Profit-taking strategy — if you’ve caught the start of an alt season and your alt positions show significant gains, lock in profits at local peaks. Sharp reversals in dominance can quickly erode gains.

Summary

Understanding Bitcoin dominance dynamics is essential for every crypto market participant. This indicator acts as a compass, helping to determine which phase of the cycle the market is in and which assets have greater growth potential.

Against the backdrop of increasing institutional support for Bitcoin, expanding altcoin ecosystems, and new blockchain trends, the dominance chart will remain a focus for analysts and traders. The peak or collapse of this indicator often signals portfolio reallocation between the main asset and alternative projects.