The backstage of Bitcoin's year-end rebound: Even as funds flow out of crypto asset ETFs, breaking through $90,000 is in sight

Just Before the Opening in 2026, the True Nature of Bitcoin’s Resilience

On December 30, Bitcoin (BTC) temporarily rebounded to $89,340 on Coinbase US. This rise is not just a simple price recovery but reflects a significant change in market structure. Even in an environment where funds are continuously flowing out of crypto asset ETFs, the fact that buyers still exist suggests a potential for further developments.

As of this writing, BTC price has reached 90.44K (market share: 55.84%). In the unique end-of-year trading environment, where the expectations of professional investors and individual traders intersect, why does Bitcoin continue to maintain its strength?

The Tug-of-War Between “Withdrawal” by Institutional Investors and Spot Demand

Throughout December, the funds flowing out of US spot crypto asset ETFs have totaled $1.8862 billion. Notably, in the last 8 days (December 18–30), approximately $1.13 billion has been withdrawn.

This large-scale fund outflow is attributed to year-end tax strategies. As analyst Tom Lee of Bitmine points out, the “portfolio adjustments after Boxing Day (December 26)” have been confirmed by the maximum single-day outflow on December 26. During this period, due to tax refund procedures, crypto-related stocks and assets tend to fluctuate significantly at year-end.

〈Support structure amid continued ETF outflows〉

Generally, fund outflows from ETFs exert downward pressure on the market. However, rebounds occur because funds are flowing in from other sources. The source of this inflow is altcoins.

Altcoins to Bitcoin Fund Transfers in Risk-Averse Phases

With declining liquidity and price volatility risks at year-end, market participants are showing a clear directional shift. Funds are moving into Bitcoin, which offers higher stability and liquidity.

Bitcoin dominance (the percentage of total market capitalization) vividly illustrates this movement. As of November 26, dominance was 58.50%, rising to 59.66% by December 31. In just one month, it increased by 2 percentage points, driven by typical risk-avoidance behavior.

Over the past month, Bitcoin has maintained its support level around $85,000, thanks to this continuous fund transfer. While institutional investors are selling, spot demand is accumulating, creating a balanced picture.

What Derivatives Markets Signal About “Spot-Led” Trends

Data from Coinglass on December 30 highlights the nature of this rebound. It is characterized by solid spot buying rather than speculative leveraged trading.

The derivatives indicators are as follows:

• Total trading volume: $66.34 billion (down 30.59% from the previous day)
• Open interest: $56.6 billion (down 1.85%)
• Options trading volume: $2.24 billion (down 35.46%)

The long/short ratio has returned to neutral at 0.99. This suggests that bearish positions over the past few days have been resolved, and positions are returning to equilibrium.

The retreat of speculative trading and the absence of new excessive leverage build-up create a foundation for sustainable upward movement. While leverage-driven markets are prone to sharp reversals, in a spot-led environment with rising Bitcoin dominance, a steady and resilient trend can be expected.

Stalling in the $88,000 Range and the Key to Breaking $90,000

If Bitcoin remains in the mid-$88,000 range, it is highly likely that investors who have been cautious will start building positions before the 2026 milestone, especially if Bitcoin clearly breaks through $90,000.

Looking at the market trend from the beginning of the year to now, while institutional interest in crypto ETFs remains subdued, demand from individual and spot-oriented market participants forms the bottom support.

However, caution is necessary. Fund flows from ETFs remain the biggest risk factor for the market. If large-scale outflows occur again when trading resumes at the start of the year, the scenario of breaking $90,000 could be pushed back.

As 2026 approaches, multiple dynamics are intricately at play behind the scenes of Bitcoin.