Countdown to Verdict in Trump Tariff Case: Market Faces a Major Test

The Trump tariff case is about to be decided. If found illegal, will the market stir again? Major institutions rapidly analyze 👇

Interactive Brokers: Losing the tariff tool would hinder U.S. industry reshoring and fiscal policy, pushing up interest rates but benefiting corporate profits.
Crossbridge: If tariffs are overturned, the dollar may weaken, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve could steepen.
Bank of New York Mellon: The removal of tariffs would benefit the stock market, with retail, consumer, and electronics sectors expected to benefit.
JPMorgan Chase: Could trigger fiscal concerns, but the Trump administration is likely to find alternative measures to restore tariffs.
World Gold Council: Short-term gold prices may pull back, but long-term support remains from central bank gold purchases and other demand.
Morgan Stanley: Court discretion is significant, so tariffs may not be fully canceled.
Wells Fargo: S&P 500 component companies could see pre-tax profits increase by 2.4% by 2026, with stock prices likely rising.
Nomura Securities: Trump still has five legal avenues to impose tariffs; by the end of 2026, the current tariff system may be reinstated.
KEY Advisors: If tariffs are refunded, the market could face liquidity withdrawal shocks.

Forecasting platforms show more uncertainty: Polymarket indicates only a 25% chance the Supreme Court supports tariffs, with a 26% chance of refunds; Kalshi shows a 54% chance of refunds before 2027.

Which wave of change will this ruling ultimately stir? #非农就业数据