#以太坊大户持仓变化 From a note to 30 million: An eight-year confession of sticking to one trading system

In a rental room in the city’s old neighborhoods in 2017, I wrote down a crazy goal—retire after earning 30 million. At that time, I only had 10,000 yuan in startup capital, and no one believed it would come true. Last week, my final trade pushed my account balance past that threshold, and I truly decided to seal this system away.

Doing only one method for eight years may sound foolish, but the results speak:

**Three lines determine life and death, don’t believe it? Look at the K-line**

The 50-day moving average indicates short-term rhythm, the 200-day moving average defines the larger cycle, and volume shows the movement of real gold and silver. In 2017, when BTC broke through 5000, I saw the 50-day line just crossing above the 200-day line and starting to rise, with volume at three times the six-month average. At that moment, I sold my wedding house, mortgaged everything I could, and invested all 2.8 million yuan. That first wave pushed my assets over ten million.

The most impressive part of this system isn’t just predicting rises but knowing when to hide.

**Three ironclad rules, don’t touch any of them**

First: No more than 15% of your position in a single coin. During LTC’s explosive rise in 2018, I only invested 12%. When it later fell 80%, my account was unaffected. Some people go all-in on one coin and get wiped out in one wave. Diversification isn’t cowardice; it’s a basic rule for longevity.

Second: Stop-loss is the last firewall. When mainstream coins break below the 50-day line by more than 8%, I sell. For altcoins, I exit if they break below the 50-day line by 5%. The night before LUNA’s crash, the system automatically triggered a sell of my 1% position, and in the end, I only lost 50,000 yuan. Some around me held on to the end, ending up in debt liquidation.

Third: No more than three trades per month. In previous years, I wanted to catch every market fluctuation and ended up losing half a house. After being scared into it, I set a strict rule: only three trades per month. Under this constraint, I caught the key market movements in 2012 and April 2021.

**The last trade**

ETH touched the 200-day line for the third time but didn’t break below, with extremely low volume, signaling a "golden buy point." I didn’t greedily buy more, only allocated 8%. After a 15% rise, I took profits according to my rules. My account grew from 2.7 million to 30 million.

Then I retired.

Looking back at my trading logs from 2017, the first line still remains: "Retire after earning 30 million." Back then, I was eating steamed buns while watching the charts, and no one believed this would really happen. The last line in the log reads:

**"A complex system earns money from emotions; a simple system earns money from time."**

After earning enough money, I realized there are many visuals more worth watching than K-line charts. I will keep this system stored away; maybe one day I’ll share it with those who truly want to learn. But for me, my role as a trader ends here.