#预测市场 Looking at the data from the Bitcoin prediction market on Polymarket, I suddenly thought of those who have been fooled by predicted probabilities over the past few years. The figures like a 16% chance of dropping below 80,000 in December or an 8% chance of reaching $100,000—these numbers seem scientific, but in reality, they are just an upgraded version of gambler’s psychological traps.

I have seen too many people fixate on these probability forecasts, feeling reassured when the probability is low, only to be proven wrong later. The problem with prediction markets is that they do not reflect true probabilities; instead, they mirror the collective sentiment and capital distribution of participants. Seeing many people betting on low-probability events does not mean they won’t happen; it only indicates that most people are on the same boat at this moment—this is when the risk is greatest.

What’s more painful is that these platforms tend to attract those hoping to turn their fortunes around through "predictions." Every change in probability can trigger FOMO, making people feel they see opportunities others don’t. But honestly, in the long run, those who make decisions based on prediction market data are often just giving money to those with an informational advantage.

The truly reliable approach still comes down to fundamentals—Bitcoin’s long-term trend, macroeconomic environment, and your own risk tolerance. You can watch prediction markets, but don’t treat them as gospel. Be wary of voices trying to persuade you to go all-in with probability numbers; these are often just the prelude to another round of rug pulls. Those who survive long on-chain are never hostage to short-term prediction volatility.