Recently, XRP's upward momentum has attracted the attention of many retail investors, with the obvious manifestation being enthusiastic buying on trading platforms and continuous discussions. However, a closer look at market data and technical analysis reveals several warning signals behind this rally.

Let's start by examining the capital side: related ETF products have accumulated inflows of $1.65 billion, with daily purchase amounts around $46.1 million. Institutions are indeed deploying large-scale positions. But it's important to clarify—when institutional money enters the market, the core purpose is to make a profit, not to boost retail investors. After years in the crypto market, many tactics have been thoroughly exploited, and the timing and rhythm of institutional deployments are often carefully planned.

By enlarging the K-line chart and combining several key technical indicators, you can spot the clues. The RSI indicator has now surged into the severely overbought zone—this means buying momentum is nearly exhausted, and market demand has been overstretched. To put it simply, like a car with the accelerator pressed to the floor, it’s likely to crash if it keeps going forward. Another more direct signal is that the MACD histogram has turned negative. According to market operation principles, a negative MACD usually indicates that short-term selling pressure will significantly increase. When these two signals are combined, they form a classic "bull trap"—the price spikes higher, but internal momentum is already waning.

Therefore, the key issue is not whether XRP has risen, but the quality of this rally internally. Retail investors need to understand that when chasing gains, they should not only focus on the price but also pay attention to the true market sentiment behind the indicators.