#比特币宏观表现 Looking at the latest data, Bitcoin's Q4 decline exceeded 22%, marking its worst performance since 2018. But a closer look at the logic behind this rebound is quite interesting—rising to $90,000 seems impressive, but the underlying capital signals are quite weak.

From an on-chain perspective, this is more of a technical correction rather than a sign of new market entry. The movements of large holders remain cautious, and no clear signs of significant buying have been observed. The total crypto market cap has regained the $3 trillion level, but whether it can hold this critical position is key—historically, such psychological thresholds are often tested repeatedly.

It's also worth noting the seasonal effects. Liquidity tends to tighten toward the end of the year, and combined with current macro uncertainties, short-term volatility remains high. I've observed that trading hours in the US are still frequently pulling back, indicating that market participants' willingness to hold positions is limited. Instead of guessing a reversal, it's better to continue monitoring whale wallet movements and the actual inflows and outflows of large funds—data tends to be more honest than sentiment.