Currently, as Bitcoin surges toward $100,000, many people are starting to get restless again. But I’ve decided not to follow this rebound.

Honestly, from a risk-reward perspective, this trade isn’t worth it. Even if you make a profit, it’s only about ten to twenty points. But if it goes against you? Your principal could be cut in half, then cut again. With such an unfavorable win rate and odds, there’s no need to force it.

This situation is a bit ironic—an entire wave of people scrambling to chase the last profit of the bull market, afraid of missing out. But think about it—on such a crowded track, who will be the few winners?

When I first entered the crypto world, I was excited whenever I saw bullish signals, ready to go all-in. But after enough experience in this market, you understand what “calm as still water” really means. It’s not indifference; it’s clarity.

Without the formation of a super U bottom, I wouldn’t place easy bets. That’s my bottom line.

Many say this time is different, but often the result is the same—getting caught here. When the entire market has been running high and has been rising for two years, entering or holding heavily at this point is too risky from any angle. The biggest trap in investing is to heavily leverage in pursuit of that last bit of return.

The real investment logic is simple: when the market price is high and the bull market has been going on for a long time, your best move is to be as conservative as possible. Conversely, when everyone is cautious and waiting on the sidelines, that’s when you should be aggressive.