The U.S. and Venezuela are actively negotiating a framework to resume Venezuelan crude oil shipments to American markets. This geopolitical shift could have meaningful implications for global energy pricing and U.S. monetary policy dynamics. Historically, crude oil supply changes have ripple effects across macro asset classes—influencing inflation expectations, dollar strength, and subsequently, the risk appetite for volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. The outcome of these talks may reshape energy supply chains and reshape how markets price inflation and recession probabilities in the months ahead.