Year-End Closing Preview: Technical Analysis of S&P 500, USD/JPY, and Precious Metals

As the year-end and new year trading window approaches, global capital markets have fallen into holiday mode with light trading activity, which coincidentally provides the best opportunity for technical consolidation. The Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes once again confirmed policy stance divergence, with officials divided on the necessity of further easing. Some policymakers favor maintaining stable interest rates, indirectly supporting the strength of the US dollar.

S&P 500 Index: Foundation Still Stable, Short-term Resistance Tests Bull-Bear Boundary

The S&P 500 index has recently declined for three consecutive trading days, with the lowest point reaching 6893.4, a 0.14% drop on Tuesday. Despite short-term pressure, the index remains above the key bull-bear dividing line at 6790, indicating that the long-term upward trend remains intact.

From a technical perspective, as long as the index holds above the 6800 support level, there is room for a rebound toward the 6900 to 7000 range. Conversely, if it falls below the 6790 psychological level, further risks of decline to 6600 and even 6450 increase. The current critical factor is the strength of the battle between bulls and bears around the 6800 level.

Technical Data Reference:

• Support levels: 6800, 6600, 6450
• Resistance levels: 6900, 7000, 7320

USD/JPY: Double Top Formation Emerges, Breaking 157.0 Becomes Key

Over the past six weeks, USD/JPY has been repeatedly suppressed by selling pressure in the 157.0-158.0 range, with support below at 155.0. This oscillating pattern has gradually evolved into a potential double top structure, with the neckline around 154.50.

If the exchange rate cannot effectively break above 157.0, the consolidation at high levels will continue. However, if it falls below the 154.50 neckline support, downside space opens up, increasing the likelihood of testing the 152.0 level. During year-end trading, the movement of this currency pair may be influenced by changes in the US-Japan interest rate differential.

Technical Data Reference:

• Support levels: 155.0, 154.5, 152.0
• Resistance levels: 157.0, 158.0, 160.0

Gold: Continued High-level Consolidation, Watch for Tug-of-War Between 4300 and 4400

Entering the year-end, gold has softened, with a decline of 0.49% during Wednesday’s session, touching a low of $4274, briefly breaking below the $4300 mark. Looking at recent trends, after a sharp single-day drop of over 5% in late October, gold prices entered a phase of oscillation and consolidation.

Currently, the focus is on the range between 4300 and 4400. If it cannot stabilize above $4300, gold may further decline to 4200 or even 4150. To regain upward momentum, a break and sustained hold above 4400 are necessary. Market activity remains subdued due to holiday sentiment, which also means the effectiveness of technical support levels needs ongoing observation.

Technical Data Reference:

• Support levels: 4300, 4150, 4000
• Resistance levels: 4400, 4500, 4620

Silver: Critical Time Window, Increasing Downward Pressure

Silver’s performance is particularly noteworthy, with a 5.8% decline on Wednesday, with the lowest price dropping to $70.52, once again falling below the $72 level. This sharp correction signals two things: first, after a significant rally, profit-taking momentum is strong; second, the timing has entered a critical window, often indicating the start of a correction cycle.

In the short term, if silver rebounds encounter resistance at $75.0, the probability of further declines to $70 or even $67.0 increases. Reversing the downtrend requires recapturing and holding above $75.0. Traders should pay close attention to trading volume dynamics, which will determine whether the correction continues.

Technical Data Reference:

• Support levels: 72.0, 70.0, 67.0
• Resistance levels: 75.0, 80.0, 83.7

Overall, the market’s liquidity at year-end is limited, making technical reference levels more significant. Effective breakthroughs of support and resistance often require waiting for the new year trading to restart.