The remaining task to surpass $4,200... The 'last mile' of gold prices

Price Status: Approaching Two-Week Highs

Gold spot(XAU/USD) has gained strong buying momentum during this week’s Asian session, bringing it close to reclaim $4,200. After a few weeks of correction, the upward momentum has been regained. The price clearly broke through the $4,175 resistance, triggering technical bullish signals. All that remains now is to ‘hold’ in the $4,200 zone.

Fed Easing Expectations as Support

The core support for gold prices is the potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve. Recent statements from Fed officials have been interpreted as increasingly dovish, with the market re-anticipating a possible 0.25% rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. In particular, voices supporting a low-interest-rate stance among potential future Fed chairs are contributing to a weaker dollar environment.

Even as the dollar temporarily rebounds, gold remains resilient against declines because this is the reason. Typically, a strong dollar suppresses gold prices, but easing expectations offset that effect.

Geopolitical Tensions Maintain Safe-Haven Preference

Uncertainty surrounding negotiations over the Ukraine war continues to support gold demand. With President Putin’s firm stance, the timing of a resolution remains uncertain, prompting market participants to seek safe assets as a precaution. This geopolitical risk premium helps prevent an excessive rally in risk assets while simultaneously enhancing gold’s relative attractiveness.

Chart Analysis: The $4,200 Resistance as a Critical Threshold

The technical outlook is positive. Gold has broken through the previous resistance at $4,175 decisively, clearly returning to an upward trend.

Bullish Scenario: If a clear close(closing) above $4,200 is achieved, the target will be set at this month’s short-term high of $4,245. Reaching this level would further strengthen the momentum for additional rallies.

Bearish Scenario: If a correction occurs, the recently broken $4,170–$4,175 range is expected to turn into a new strong support. If this line also collapses, prices could fall to around $4,115, and in an extreme correction, the 200-day moving average near $4,040 could be tested.

Investor Options

The current gold price trend reflects a unique moment where macroeconomic uncertainty and technical strength intersect. Whether $4,200 is maintained is not just a number but a key turning point in assessing how long the upward momentum can last.