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【Merrill's Former Chief Economist Warns: U.S. Economy Faces Pressure in 2026】

Former Merrill Lynch North America Chief Economist David Rosenberg recently released a thought-provoking economic forecast involving significant changes in the U.S. labor market and monetary policy.

**Unemployment Rate Could Rise Significantly**

Rosenberg points out that the U.S. unemployment rate could break above 5% in the short term, potentially rising to 6% by the end of 2026. This sharp shift in the labor market will directly impact economic growth momentum, increasing the risk of a recession.

**Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts May Exceed Expectations**

More importantly, this seasoned analyst predicts that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by a total of 125 basis points by the end of 2026, lowering the benchmark rate to around 2.25%. This suggests a period of large-scale liquidity release may be on the horizon.

**Why Should We Pay Attention to This Signal?**

Rosenberg comes from top-tier financial institutions like Merrill Lynch, and his forecast is based on decades of experience observing economic cycles. For market participants, this warning raises three key issues:

First, an accommodative monetary policy environment will suppress traditional asset yields and boost the relative attractiveness of risk assets. Second, abundant liquidity often creates opportunities for alternative assets (including cryptocurrencies). Third, rising economic uncertainty highlights the necessity of diversified asset allocation.

Smart investors have already begun to consider these long-term changes. What is your view on this forecast?