## USDT Depreciation Dilemma: Dual Pressure from USD Exchange Rate and Market Premiums

Currently, the USDT price has fallen below 6.82, deviating about 3% from the standard exchange rate of 7. What's more concerning is that half a year ago, USDT was still maintained at a level of 7.4, which means that in just a few months, the purchasing power of holders' assets has quietly evaporated by nearly 10%.

### Chain Reaction of Weakening US Dollar and RMB Appreciation

USDT's price fluctuations are constrained by two main factors: the USD to RMB exchange rate movement and the premium or discount structure within the crypto market itself. Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, and the US dollar index is under pressure, leading to a relative weakness of the dollar against the RMB. For investors holding RMB, this actually brings good news—the purchasing power of their RMB is increasing, allowing them to buy more USDT with the same amount of RMB, and thus acquire more Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

In theory, compared to a year ago, investors entering the market with RMB can buy approximately 10% more cryptocurrencies at the same cost.

### Negative Premium Signal in the Crypto Market: Bear Market Inertia Continues

However, the reality is more complex. Besides the USD exchange rate decline, USDT has also experienced additional depreciation within the crypto market—trading prices are below the official RMB exchange rate of 1:7. This reflects a clear market signal: crypto users are heavily selling USDT to exchange for RMB and exit, causing a severe negative premium on USDT.

At the same time, the information flow in the crypto community has significantly decreased, and KOLs relying mainly on advertising revenue are struggling to secure business collaborations. Many have returned to traditional jobs. All these signs point to the same conclusion—the inertia of the bear market is still ongoing, and market sentiment has not yet bottomed out.

### Investment Opportunities Before Bottom Formation

Another side of the bear market is that it creates opportunities for long-term entrants. As the downtrend deepens, we may see Bitcoin bottom out at levels of 60,000 or even 40,000 next year. Before the bottom structure is truly established, no one can precisely determine the exact lowest point, but this is the phase for patience and waiting. While short-term rebounds can provide technical relief, they do not change the overall downward trajectory.

### Small-Cap Strategy: ZEC and BCH Trading Ideas

For small-cap coins like ZEC (current price $505.64) and BCH (current price $641.55), shorting at high points has already yielded considerable profits. If these coins approach previous highs again, there is still room for short-term shorting operations. Several other small-cap coins are showing similar head-and-shoulders structures, and consistent daily execution of established strategies can generate profits.

Bitcoin (BTC current price $91.17K) may experience short-term technical rebounds, but this should not distract us from the long-term downward trend—patience in accumulating positions and waiting for a clear bottom structure remains the best time for large-scale entry.