#稳定币生态发展 Seeing the valuation comparison between Revolut and Nubank, I am reminded of the detours digital banks have taken over the years. Back then, everyone was competing for user numbers and interface design, thinking that was the moat. But what was the result? The platforms that truly made money were those that captured revenue per customer.

Today’s article discusses something deeper — digital banks have reached a critical crossroads. The combination of wallets and bank cards has been played out; any institution can do it. The real issue is that under the impact of stablecoins, the original profit models are being dismantled. Think about it: when users can make peer-to-peer transfers with stablecoins, why pay for bank card transaction fees? Digital banks that rely on transaction fees will find their days increasingly difficult.

The real turning point lies in the shift of value focus. Stripe’s self-built Tempo chain and Circle’s Arc network are not just technological innovations; they are competing for the most lucrative parts of the entire system — settlement rights and reserve fund management. They understand a key principle: whoever controls the flow channels of funds and custody rights can continuously profit from the underlying infrastructure. I have seen this strategic layout multiple times in history; every industry upgrade repeats this pattern.

Another dimension worth noting is identity verification. What does the EU’s push for digital identity wallets mean? It signifies that identities will shift from being private assets of banks to portable credentials for users. Once this system matures, the differences between traditional banks and digital banks will be greatly diminished. At that point, true competitiveness will no longer depend on whose account system is more advanced, but on who can develop more valuable value-added services based on this trusted identity foundation.

In summary, I believe the future landscape of digital banks will split into two major camps — one is lightweight consumer applications with very low switching costs, leading to fierce competition; the other is platforms that deeply control infrastructure, continuously profiting from every user operation. From a historical cycle perspective, the latter will be the real winner. Companies that only stay on the surface, building applications without controlling core infrastructure, will ultimately be integrated or phased out.