The New Normal: How Bitcoin's ETF Era is Redefining Bull and Bear Markets

With Bitcoin currently trading around $87.76K amid subtle market fluctuations, one critical question emerges: are we currently in a bull or bear market? The answer depends less on price action than on fundamental market structure changes reshaping how we should interpret Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

ETFs Fundamentally Altered Bitcoin’s Volatility Profile

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024, the cryptocurrency’s price behavior has undergone a seismic shift. Blockware analyst Mitchell Askew argues that the traditional boom-and-bust cycles—characterized by explosive rallies followed by devastating crashes—are becoming relics of the past. The catalyst? The integration of institutional capital through regulated financial products.

The data tells a compelling story: volatility metrics have compressed significantly compared to Bitcoin’s pre-ETF era. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst specializing in exchange-traded products, confirmed this observation, noting that reduced price swings create a bridge for institutional capital that previously viewed Bitcoin’s wild gyrations as unacceptable risk.

A New Investment Paradigm Emerges

This structural transformation means Bitcoin as an asset class now exists in two distinct phases: pre-ETF and post-ETF. The implications are profound:

• Institutional participation has become permanent: Traditional finance and crypto markets are now deeply interconnected through regulated vehicles, making it difficult for prices to disconnect from broader financial system dynamics
• Short-term speculators face an exodus narrative: Boring, steady appreciation eliminates the 10x-in-a-month scenarios that attracted retail volatility traders
• Market psychology has shifted: Without parabolic peaks to chase, the retail FOMO engine that once drove mania cycles has lost its fuel

The Long Road to $1 Million: A Gradual Climb

Rather than explosive growth punctuated by bear market catastrophes, Bitcoin’s path toward eventual wealth accumulation will likely resemble a series of grinding consolidation phases interrupted by measured advances. Askew’s outlook suggests that over the next 10 years, expect Bitcoin to climb through cycles of patience and discipline—precisely the opposite of the thrilling volatility that once defined cryptocurrency markets.

This steady-state model benefits long-term holders but presents a challenge: are we currently in a bull or bear market when the traditional definition of each becomes obsolete? The answer increasingly depends on your time horizon rather than price momentum.

What This Means for Market Participants

The ETF revolution has democratized access while simultaneously taming wild swings. Larger institutional investors can now accumulate Bitcoin without triggering the same disruptive price catalysts that plagued smaller entities. The trade-off: the era of “god-like candlestick formations” and life-changing leveraged trades is fading into historical narrative.

Bitcoin’s future appears less like a thrilling roller coaster and more like a well-engineered escalator—steady, predictable, and boringly efficient at wealth transfer through the dollar cost average.