Bitcoin at Critical Juncture: Top Traders Split on $116K Breakout as Market Faces Key Decision

Market Divide Deepens Over BTC’s Near-Term Direction

The cryptocurrency market is showing sharp divergence among professional traders as Bitcoin approaches crucial resistance levels. Following the breakthrough to $116,666 on August 7, Beijing time, the digital asset now sits at a technical crossroads that will likely determine the next phase of price action. Current BTC price stands at $87.67K with a -0.19% 24-hour change, though trader projections suggest significantly higher targets may still be within reach.

The Bull Case: Institutional Accumulation Driving Next Leg Up

Several prominent analysts see the recent consolidation as a setup for another substantial rally. Trader Vivian outlined a specific entry strategy back on Beijing time, suggesting a phased approach to building positions: 30% entry during the Asian session, 50% around Saturday’s full moon technical window, with 20% reserved for deeper drawdowns below $108,888. Her thesis hinges on a failure to hold below $115K on the 4-hour chart—a level that would confirm continued weakness.

The narrative from this camp points to institutional behavior patterns. On-exchange ETH reserves have dropped to nine-year lows, reminiscent of ICO-era levels, suggesting serious accumulation by larger participants. Pentoshi argues this structural tightness in supply, combined with sustained institutional demand, sets up a scenario where a new all-time high is “not a question of whether, but when.”

Trader Saint Pump’s analysis adds conviction here. His observation that the early August low (August 4-5) marked the cycle bottom has already played out, opening the door for a mid-August push toward fresh highs. Similarly, Altcoin Sherpa remains constructive on the price structure, noting that daily candles show strength and suggesting $120,000 is achievable if current support holds.

The Caution Camp: Resistance Ahead Before Further Upside

Not all top traders are convinced the rally has legs without a pullback first. Elliott Wave analyst Liu Yudong’s daily chart analysis points to a critical trend line currently sitting near $112,501. Without a convincing break above $117,436, Bitcoin remains technically weak in this framework, with the possibility of a sharp reversion to the trend line support.

Pigeon Eugene Ng, a well-known macro trader who shared his views updated on Beijing time, opted to step back from active trading. His message was clear: the market is difficult to navigate, and he’s taking a pause—ready to re-enter only on a major drawdown. This cautious positioning from an established name mirrors the hesitation creeping into sentiment.

Vivian herself, while constructive on mid-term direction, has emphasized patience around shorting. She flagged that the break above $116,666 is now facing structural resistance, requiring a close below $115K to confirm the next downleg on a 4-hour or daily timeframe.

ETH Holds Its Own Despite Broader Caution

Ethereum ($2.93K, -0.57% 24h) is showing unexpected resilience according to multiple analysts. While the broader sentiment remains mixed, chain data and technicals suggest ETH may be closer to a breakout than BTC. Strong buying support and historical highs within striking distance keep the medium-term thesis intact, even as traders manage near-term volatility.

What’s at Stake Over the Next 48-72 Hours

The convergence of these views suggests a critical period directly ahead. The $115K-$116.7K band will likely determine whether traders remain patient and accumulate, or whether a retest of deeper support is imminent. Multiple analysts noted that recent volatility has already shaken out many players, and the next move—whichever direction—could trigger significant liquidations.

Most market participants are approaching this juncture defensively. Many are holding cash or reducing long exposure, waiting for either a crash to deploy capital aggressively, or a decisive breakout to confirm continuation. RunnerXBT and other positioned traders are actively reducing holdings through this resistance zone.

Key Takeaway: Beijing time analysis from leading traders reveals a market at an inflection point. While medium-term conviction remains tilted toward higher prices, short-term technicals and positioning suggest caution is warranted before the next major move. Risk management and defined entry points are more critical than ever in this environment.