ETH Breaks Through 4640 Barrier—The Real Driver Behind This Rally Goes Deeper Than You Think

The cryptocurrency market witnessed a dramatic turn yesterday evening when Ethereum surged nearly $200 in just 60 minutes. What appeared to be a sudden price spike was actually the result of converging macroeconomic signals and technical positioning. The story here isn’t just about one day’s volatility—it’s about what happens when inflation data meets technical resistance.

The CPI Shock: Why Markets Repriced Risk Assets Overnight

At 20:30 UTC yesterday, the U.S. released July’s unadjusted year-on-year CPI reading at 2.7%, down from the previous month’s 2.8%. While this figure aligned with expectations, the market’s interpretation was clear: U.S. inflation is decelerating for the second consecutive month. This matters significantly because Federal Reserve policy hinges on inflation trajectory. When inflation cools, traders begin repositioning bets away from prolonged rate hikes toward potential cuts in the latter part of 2025 or early 2026.

This repricing isn’t random. Capital that was sitting on the sidelines—hesitant to enter risk assets under a hawkish Fed—suddenly found its thesis challenged. Money rotated from cash positions into equities and cryptocurrencies. ETH, as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, moved lockstep with Bitcoin, climbing from $4,405 to $4,604 as traders caught the upside. The normal adjustment that followed—when crude oil import data disappointed—merely represented profit-taking after such a sharp 200-point advance. This pullback to $4,592 is textbook consolidation behavior, not a reversal signal.

Technical Confirmation: 4640 Becomes the Pivot Point

On the 1-hour timeframe, Ethereum’s current positioning is critical. At $4,592, the asset sits just beneath the 4640 resistance zone, with major support anchored at $4,435 and a secondary floor at $4,200. The technical setup strongly suggests continuation bias.

The MACD indicator paints a bullish picture: the DIF line has crossed above the DEA line in a textbook “golden cross” formation, with histogram bars expanding in red. This isn’t a weak technical signal—expanding histogram bars indicate accelerating upside momentum. Simultaneously, trading volume during the earlier spike was unmistakably elevated, confirming that institutional and retail buyers were accumulating, not distributing.

More significantly, ETH just reclaimed the $4,500 threshold, leaving only $150 of distance to the 4640 resistance zone. A decisive break here would clear the path toward the $4,800 level that traders have been targeting.

The Breakout Question: Can We Actually Reach 4800?

Whether Ethereum achieves 4800 tonight depends on two converging factors working in tandem.

The fundamental backdrop remains supportive. CPI deceleration isn’t a one-off data point—it reflects broader easing in price pressures. Upcoming commentary from Federal Reserve officials and European economic indicators will determine whether this narrative holds. Risk assets maintain upside momentum as long as Fed speakers avoid hawkish rhetoric that contradicts the inflation-cooling story.

Technical confirmation is equally vital. The $4,640 resistance zone must break on elevated volume—ideally, hourly volume exceeding yesterday’s spike. Without such confirmation, ETH may consolidate sideways for one to two days before attempting another breakout. Simply testing 4640 without breaking it would merely represent failed resistance, not a bullish resolution.

A Practical Framework for Different Trader Types

For momentum traders pursuing higher entries: Wait for a confirmed break above $4,640 before initiating long positions. Place your stop loss at $4,580, permitting a modest pullback before exit. If the resistance zone breaks decisively, follow the momentum toward $4,800 and beyond.

For value-oriented accumulators: Gradual buying pressure near $4,435 remains tactically sound. Position targets should initially target $4,640, with $4,800 becoming relevant only upon breakout confirmation. The risk-reward at these levels favors the buyer over the next several days.

For traders holding substantial positions: Consider trimming exposure near the $4,640 resistance zone. Capturing profits within reach is always preferable to betting everything on a continuation that may take days to develop. Risk management through position reduction is not pessimism—it’s professional discipline.

The Critical Level to Monitor Tonight

All eyes should focus on $4,640 as tonight unfolds. This price point represents the fulcrum between two scenarios: a breakout that extends Ethereum toward $4,800 and beyond, or a rejection that necessitates consolidation before the next attempt.

Combining technical analysis with macroeconomic context provides a framework for avoiding the most common trading mistakes. While the cryptocurrency market offers no certainties, the convergence of improving CPI data and bullish technical positioning suggests the probabilities currently favor the bulls—provided that tonight’s volume confirms the conviction.

Monitor the breakout; follow it if it materializes. If $4,640 holds as resistance, patience becomes the appropriate response. Steady capital deployment and disciplined exit planning will outperform aggressive all-in positioning over any market cycle.