Solana's 11.9% Weekly Surge: Can SOL Break Through $200 to Reclaim Glory?

Solana just posted an impressive 11.9% weekly gain, reclaiming the $180 zone and reigniting bullish vibes among traders. The current price sits around $122, with SOL’s market cap now at $68.72B—still miles away from Ethereum’s territory, but the momentum tells a different story.

The Cup and Handle Setup That’s Got Everyone Talking

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez spotted something interesting: a textbook cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. Here’s what makes it noteworthy:

The pattern began forming after SOL’s massive 2021 collapse, hitting lows near $8, then climbing steadily to consolidate around $200 by mid-2024. Think of it as a long accumulation phase followed by a tight consolidation (the “handle”) below $200. This week’s breakout above that level could be the signal traders have been waiting for.

If this plays out, Ali’s projection pegs SOL at $1,315—a 630% jump from today’s levels. That would push SOL’s market cap toward $710 billion, potentially flipping Ethereum if ETH stalls. Key resistance zones to watch: $380, $752, and $1,048.

Why This Matters Right Now

Cup and handle patterns are respected in technical analysis because they signal strong accumulation followed by genuine breakout momentum. For SOL, the pattern depth (from $8 to $200) and volume confirmation at $200 lend credibility. But let’s be real—historical patterns don’t guarantee results. You need sustained buying volume and market tailwinds.

Historically, SOL’s ATH was $293.31. Breaking past $260 would already mark new highs and psychological wins for bulls.

The 4-Hour Reality Check

On shorter timeframes, things look muddier. SOL faces a descending trend line resistance at $186.22. The 50-period MA at $169.71 held the rebound from early August lows, with prices making higher lows in an ascending structure—technically bullish, but fragile.

Technical indicators:

• RSI: 62.5 (bullish momentum, no extreme overbought)
• MACD: positive cross above zero (modest histogram growth)
• Price action: small-bodied candles with upper shadows near resistance (profit-taking signals)

Trading Scenarios

If bulls hold: A daily close above $186 opens the door to $195.42 and $205.92 via Fibonacci extensions. This aligns with the cup and handle breakout thesis.

If bears push back: Rejection at $186 could trigger pullbacks to $177.40 or $167.00. The 50 MA provides support.

Risk management: Set stops below $177 for bullish plays, above $187 for bearish shorts. The 11.9% weekly momentum is exciting, but don’t chase without a plan.

The Bottom Line

SOL’s weekly pop and breakout above $200 are encouraging, but the $1,315 target is years away—IF it happens. More realistic near-term targets are $380 and $752. The pattern looks solid, technicals are mixed, and market structure matters. Watch volume, watch resistance levels, and respect the stops.