Market Cycles Aligned: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoin Charts Reveal the Road Ahead

The cryptocurrency market operates within interconnected cycles—Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $87.52K, Ethereum (ETH) at $2.93K—all following predictable rhythms. This analysis examines the four-year and five-year market cycles still unfolding across major digital assets, combining Elliott Wave theory with market structure to map the path forward.

Key Timeframes: Timing Trumps Position

Wave theory establishes that temporal precision outweighs immediate price levels. Mark these critical windows:

• September 5-11, 2025 – Potential bottoming period with major acceleration expected around September 15
• October 2025 through December 2025 – Secondary confirmation phases
• September 2026 or December 2026 – Intermediate cycle targets
• November-December 2028-2030 – Long-term cycle completion zones

Bitcoin’s Cycle Architecture

Bitcoin’s four-year pattern persists despite increased institutional integration, though clarity has become obscured. The current market sits within a declining supercycle (waves 3-4-Z), preparing for supercycle wave 3-5.

The supercycle 3-5 launch could initiate between September 5-11, 2025, with genuine momentum acceleration near September 15, 2025. This wave originates from interest rate cut expectations, ideally concluding November-December 2025 (no earlier than October’s completion).

Following the supercycle 3-5 decline comes supercycle wave 4, targeting 74,500 BTC by September 2026 or December 2026, with extreme levels between 55,700-66,700. The subsequent supercycle wave 5—arriving November-December 2028-2030—represents the final major cycle, reaching 19W-20W-22.5W price territories.

Ethereum’s Multi-Layered Structure

Short-Term Price Action:

Ethereum’s supercycle 1-4-XX-A wave has completed internal five-wave subdivisions. The monthly Bollinger band upper resistance sits at 4,280-4,320 (approximately August 11 timeframe), with potential extremes extending to 4,484-4,817, though 5,183 represents an absolute ceiling. Current support consolidates around 4,071.

Extended Cycle Script:

Ethereum operates within historical supercycle 1-4 wave structure. While the broader supercycle 1 remains bearish, the internal 1-4-XX wave constitutes a localized bull pattern.

Currently positioned at the supercycle 1-4-XX-A wave conclusion or supercycle 1-4-XX-B wave initiation phase. The 1-4-XX-A upside targets 4,071-4,100 (already achieved with peak potential) or monthly Bollinger resistance at 4,280-4,320.

The 1-4-XX-B downside correction targets 2,400-2,500-2,900-3,000. Subsequently, supercycle 1-4-XX-C will likely bottom between September 5-11, 2025, with explosive appreciation materializing around September 15, 2025. The C-wave upside targets 4,850-5,000-5,540 (400% of 1,385)-6,000, ideally completing November-December 2025.

Post-C wave completion signals the entire 1-4-XX wave conclusion, triggering supercycle 1-4-Z decline toward 2,200-2,780-2,850-3,000 by September or December 2026. The 1-4-Z completion marks the end of the supercycle 1-4 bear market, transitioning into the supercycle 1-5 bull wave (November-December 2028-2030 target: 6,000-8,000-9,000).

Altcoin Market Status: A Separate Journey

Altcoin performance cannot be evaluated through Bitcoin or Ethereum lens—each requires independent analysis. Three distinct market-cap tier charts reveal the true altcoin narrative.

Altcoins Remain in Bear Market Phase

The critical distinction: Bitcoin strength does not equal altcoin strength. Multiple market-cap categories show divergent patterns.

Positioning Framework During Bear-to-Bull Transition:

The transition bottoming period exhibits small bull pulses, declining severity, obvious local floors, and frustrating horizontal consolidation ranges. This Zhuang accumulation phase can liquidate impatient participants over 8-9 historical months.

Top 50 Market-Cap Altcoins (Primary Fish & Shrimp):

Still bearish from March 2024 launch. April through late July/early August produced first small bull (non-driving wave structure). September-October 2025 brings the second small bull, allowing no new lows with sideways adjustment. Bear-to-bull transition initiates January-March 2026 with 8-9 month bottom-building. Historical lows arrive December 2025 or January-March 2026, with secondary lows September-December 2026 marking true bull commencement.

Market-Cap 50-100 Altcoins (Secondary Tier):

Pattern mirrors top-50 structure but with inferior rally quality, suggesting concentrated top-50 exposure provides better risk-adjusted returns during small bulls.

Below Market-Cap 100 Altcoins (Micro-Caps):

Endured continuous decline since late 2021 without 2024 bull relief. Current bear market extends from that 2021 trough. April-August first small bull (again, non-driving structure). September-October second small bull with mostly new lows. True bottoming arrives September-December 2026. Micro-cap participation during bear small bulls carries elevated uncertainty and typically underperforms.

Strategic Allocation Recommendations

During Small Bull Phases (September-October 2025, December 2025-March 2026): Concentrate on top-50 market-cap altcoins for optimal risk-reward, secondary consideration for 50-100 tier, avoid sub-100 micro-caps.

During Bear-to-Bull Bottom Building (September-October 2026 through December 2026): Layer exposure across top-50, top-100, and below-100 altcoin categories, constructing positions for the ensuing bull market acceleration.

Five-Year Cycle Integration: This extended timeframe encompasses the current four-year cycle completion plus the subsequent cycle initialization, reinforcing the September 2026-December 2026 critical bottoming window.

Building Iron Discipline

Successful navigation requires strengthened foundational knowledge. Market cycles demand continuous learning during bear phases, positioning you advantageously for bull expansions. Independent analysis—combining Elliott Wave theory, Wyckoff accumulation models, and Gann temporal analysis—transforms theoretical understanding into consistent execution.

Risk management remains paramount. Treat investing as nighttime navigation: carry awareness constantly, avoid fog zones, refuse herd chase mentality. Thorough analysis substitutes for emotional decision-making.

The market operates in rhythms recognizable to disciplined observers. Through systematic cycle analysis and proper tier allocation, participants can synchronize with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoin movements rather than fighting against them.