Ethereum Investors Diverge: Long-Term Conviction Clashes With Short-Term Profit Realization

Ethereum ETH continues to showcase a fascinating market dynamic where two investor classes are pulling in opposite directions. While the cryptocurrency is trading around $2.93K with modest 24h volatility, on-chain metrics reveal a striking contrast in investor behavior that could determine ETH’s near-term trajectory.

Long-Term Holders Embrace Confidence

Recent sentiment indicators show a remarkable psychological shift among Ethereum’s committed investors. According to Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metrics, long-term holders—those maintaining positions for extended periods—have transitioned from a “capitulation” mindset in April to a stance of “belief” by August. This represents a fundamental change in conviction, with these investors maintaining remarkably restrained profit-taking relative to their potential gains, matching December 2024 realization levels. The message is clear: seasoned stakeholders are betting on ETH’s trajectory, even as the asset remains 12.28% below its November 2021 all-time high of $4.95K.

Short-Term Traders Book Aggressive Gains

In stark contrast, short-term traders—holding ETH for less than 155 days—are pursuing a tactical exit strategy. Glassnode’s profit realization data indicates these market participants are cashing out at an accelerated pace of $553 million daily over the past seven days, approaching July’s peak of $771 million per day when Ethereum traded under $3.6K. This disconnect between institutional conviction and retail profit-taking creates significant market tension.

Technical Outlook and Price Targets

The next meaningful resistance zone sits at $5,210, with subsequent targets at $6,946 according to pricing band analysis. A sustained breakout above current consolidation could trigger rapid movement toward $4,700—though liquidation data from CoinGlass warns that such a move would force closure of approximately $2.23 billion in leveraged positions.

On the daily chart, ETH trades near overbought Bollinger Band levels, with the 20-day moving average around $3,823 providing immediate support. The RSI indicator suggests potential consolidation before the next directional move. If bearish pressure emerges and price breaks below $4,100, traders may revisit the $3,800 support zone.

The Profit-Taking Cycle

Ethereum has appreciated over 68% in the past year, establishing itself among top-performing digital assets in 2024-2025. However, the divergence in profit-taking between investor classes—with short-term traders realizing gains at levels significantly higher than long-term holders—suggests the market is building pressure for a sharper move. This fundamental tension between two opposing forces will likely generate pronounced price volatility in the coming weeks, making position management critical for active traders.