Fed Dot Plot for 2026: What to Expect from the Next Phase of Rate Cuts

The December 2025 Fed dot plot is generating quite a bit of discussion among analysts. The Federal Reserve’s tool projects a significant decrease in the funds rate, dropping from 3.6% in 2025 to approximately 3.4% in 2026. In other words: the market is preparing for a scenario of more accessible rates, but without haste.

BlackRock’s view on the easing cycle

BlackRock aligns with these Fed projections, anticipating a gradual and cautious reduction in rates throughout 2026. Unlike the more aggressive restrictive cycle adopted in 2022, the current approach is guided by real market data. Economic growth remains decelerated but stable, creating the ideal environment for the Fed to proceed with gradual cuts.

The strategy is not surprising. After two years of monetary tightening, the Fed aims to find a neutral stance that keeps inflation under control without choking the economy. The Fed dot plot reflects exactly this intention: controlled movement, step by step.

What this means for the crypto market

Traders are already paying attention to altcoin movements in this new context. Lower rates tend to favor risk assets, and this includes cryptocurrencies. The change in monetary policy could open space for capital to flow back into the segment, especially if the Fed delivers exactly what the Fed dot plot is promising.

BlackRock’s forecast suggests that 2026 will be a year of clear transition in the macroeconomic scenario. Investors who understand this dynamic are already positioned to take advantage of the opportunities coming up.