Recently, Bitcoin has been hovering between 90,000 and 94,000 USDT over the past two weeks, and the short-term fluctuations are still somewhat complex.

Let's first look at market sentiment. The fear index has dropped to 20, indicating extreme fear. Retail investors are indeed quite scared, but many institutions and experienced traders see this as a buying opportunity at this level.

On-chain data is even more interesting—recently, the daily total liquidation across the network has fluctuated between 300 million and 900 million USD, indicating that many leveraged traders have been wiped out. Conversely, the actual long positions of retail investors are only 40%, while open interest has hit a record high of 99%. This structure is very susceptible to a short squeeze and a rebound.

From a technical perspective, if the price effectively breaks above 94,600, the next targets could be in the 105,600–115,000 range. Conversely, if it falls below 81,665, the key support at 62,605 will come under pressure.

From a cycle perspective, many analysts believe that December 2025 is already within the top window of this cycle, with a theoretical target of 90,000–130,000 USD. The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations still have an 89% probability, and the flow of funds at the end of the year remains a variable.

Overall, we are currently at a highly uncertain equilibrium point, whether to expect a rebound or continued sideways decline.