From Cycles to Peaks: Bitcoin's Bull Run Journey Through the Decades

By the end of 2024, Bitcoin reached a new ATH of $126.08K but has now corrected down to $87.27K, a 1.12% decrease in 24 hours. This volatility is not uncommon in Bitcoin’s history. Since its inception in 2009, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has gone through multiple bull and bear cycles, each offering valuable lessons about the crypto market.

What Is a Bitcoin Bull Run and Why Is It Important?

A Bitcoin bull run is not just a period of rising prices. It is a complex combination of technical factors, market psychology, and uniquely shaping events. History shows that halving events—when mining rewards are cut roughly in half every four years—often create scarcity mechanisms, serving as the main catalyst behind these price surges.

Through successive halvings, Bitcoin has established a pattern: after the 2012 halving, prices increased by 5,200%; after the 2016 halving, up 315%; after the 2020 halving, up 230%. These figures indicate a predictable trend, though not always guaranteed.

2024-2025: Bull Run Driven by Spot Bitcoin ETF

The current cycle differs from previous ones. In January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, opening the door for institutional capital to flow in through traditional financial channels. From the beginning of ($40K) to the ATH of ($126.08K) in 2024, Bitcoin has surged over 200%—this growth driven by capital inflows from ETF funds exceeding $28 trillions, surpassing global gold ETF markets.

The fourth halving event in April 2024 further fuels bullish sentiment. Money from organizations like MicroStrategy, private banks, and investment funds continues to accumulate BTC, reducing circulating supply on exchanges.

Indicators to Recognize an Upcoming Bull Run

To forecast a Bitcoin bull run, investors should combine three types of data:

1. Technical Indicators
RSI surpassing 70 signals strong momentum; breaking the 200-day moving average often marks a new upward trend. In the 2024 bull run, both indicators confirm a bullish trend.

2. On-Chain Data
Spiking wallet activity, increased stablecoin inflows to exchanges, and decreasing BTC holdings on exchanges—these signs suggest investors are accumulating rather than selling off. In 2024, ETF funds hold nearly 1 million BTC, about 5% of the total supply.

3. Macroeconomic and Regulatory Factors
ETF approvals, pro-cryptocurrency policies from governments like (proposed BITCOIN Act 2024 by Senator Cynthia Lummis to accumulate 1 million BTC), and Bitcoin’s acceptance as strategic reserves by countries such as Bhutan (13,000 BTC) and El Salvador (5,875 BTC).

Historical Bull Runs: From 2013 to Present

2013: The Early Steps

Bitcoin rose from $145 (May 2013) to $1,200 (December 2013)—up 730%. This was the first bull run that drew significant public attention, although the Mt. Gox crash in 2014 caused a 75% drop. Forecasts for this period’s bull run mainly relied on media attention and the Cyprus banking crisis (banking crisis).

2017: The ICO Fever and Retail Investors

From $1,000 (January 2017) to $20,000 (December 2017)—up 1,900%. This bull run saw the ICO boom, with daily trading volume rising from $200 million to $15 billion. However, a subsequent correction down to $3,200 (December 2018) with an 84% decline showed extreme volatility.

2020-2021: The Institutional Era

From $8,000 (January 2020) to $64,000 (April 2021)—up 700%. This was the first time major companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square publicly accumulated Bitcoin. The approval of Bitcoin futures contracts also contributed to this bull run. The “digital gold” narrative became prominent as investors worried about inflation.

Trends That Could Drive the Next Bull Run

Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve Asset
If the BITCOIN 2024 Act passes, the US could become the first major nation to accumulate Bitcoin, significantly increasing global demand.

Technology Upgrades: OP_CAT
Activating OP_CAT on Bitcoin could open up Layer-2 solutions and DeFi applications, enhancing Bitcoin’s utility beyond just a store of value.

New Institutional Products
New crypto ETFs, mutual funds, and regulated products will continue to attract institutional capital.

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Run

1. Self-Education: Learn about Bitcoin from the original whitepaper, analyze past bull runs to identify patterns.

2. Clear Strategy: Set goals, define risk tolerance, determine investment horizon. Diversify your portfolio to reduce risk.

3. Choose Secure Exchanges: Find platforms with strong security (2FA, cold storage), user-friendly interfaces, and support for multiple cryptocurrencies.

4. Protect Your Assets: Use hardware wallets for long-term holdings, enable all security features on exchanges.

5. Stay Informed: Follow reputable news sources, pay attention to regulatory changes and technological developments.

6. Trade Responsibly: Avoid emotional decisions, use stop-loss orders, maintain discipline.

7. Tax Preparation: Understand local tax laws, keep detailed records of all transactions.

8. Join Communities: Engage with online forums, attend seminars to stay updated.

When Will the Next Bull Run Happen?

While the exact timing is hard to predict, Bitcoin’s history shows remarkable resilience. The cycle driven by halving, regulatory pressures, and increasing adoption gives Bitcoin strong potential for long-term growth.

Key catalysts to watch: next halving (2028), continued ETF inflows, government approvals, and technological advances like OP_CAT. With current prices at $87.27K (down 31% from ATH), it could be a reasonable entry point for long-term believers.

As an investor, stay alert, informed, and prepared. The next bull run will bring opportunities and challenges—those well-prepared will have an advantage.

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