BTC reaches new highs: A new pattern in the bull market cycle and investment opportunities

Current Status

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to break new all-time highs in 2024, with the current price at $87.28K. Although there has been a slight short-term correction (24-hour decline of -0.94%), the annual increase still far exceeds that of traditional assets. From the beginning of the year at $40,000 to now, BTC has achieved over 120% growth. This is not just a numerical change but also reflects a fundamental shift in the role of digital assets within the global financial landscape.

Finding Patterns in History

To understand the current bull market, we must review several major cycles BTC has experienced over the past 15 years:

2013 Awakening

Bitcoin first entered the public eye in 2013. That year, BTC surged from about $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. Several factors drove this rally: the Cyprus banking crisis prompted investors to seek alternative assets, global media began reporting on BTC’s scarcity, and early adopters actively positioned themselves. But the good times didn’t last—by 2014, BTC fell below $300, a drop of over 75%. The Mt.Gox exchange hack was the trigger for this bear market, handling around 70% of global BTC transactions at the time.

2017 Frenzy

2017 was the era of the “全民运动” (mass movement) in crypto assets. From $1,000 at the start of the year to $20,000 at year-end, a 1,900% increase. This bull run was characterized by a flood of retail investors. The boom in ICO projects, the proliferation of trading platforms, and social media hype pushed BTC to new heights. Daily trading volume soared from $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end. However, regulatory pressure soon followed—China banned ICOs and domestic exchanges, and the US SEC began scrutinizing market manipulation. By the end of 2018, BTC dropped to $3,200, an 84% decline from its peak.

2020-2021 Institutional Era

If 2017 was retail’s carnival, then 2020-2021 marked institutional entry. BTC rose from $8,000 at the start of 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. The driving forces included large purchases by MicroStrategy, Square, Tesla, and other companies, institutional funds from Grayscale (Grayscale), and recognition of the narrative of “digital gold” and “hedging against inflation.” By November 2021, BTC hit a high of $69,000. Although a subsequent 53% correction occurred, this period established BTC as an institutional asset.

New Variables in 2024-2025

The current bull market features several distinctive characteristics:

Power of Spot ETFs

The approval of spot BTC ETFs by the US SEC in January 2024 marked a turning point. This means traditional 401(k) retirement plans, mutual funds, and insurance companies can now hold BTC exposure directly without purchasing or understanding blockchain technology. The results are significant: in November alone, BTC ETFs absorbed net inflows of $4.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $28 billion, surpassing gold ETFs. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds over 467,000 BTC. This “institutionalization” has driven BTC prices from $40,000 at the start of the year to nearly $94,000.

Reappearance of the Halving Cycle

The fourth halving scheduled for April 2024 will occur as planned. Each halving reduces miner rewards from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, sharply decreasing new coin supply. Historical data shows that the 12 months following halving are typically the strongest growth period: post-2012 halving saw a 5,200% increase, 2016 halving led to a 315% rise, and 2020 halving resulted in a 230% increase. This tightening of supply fundamentally supports the price.

Geopolitical and Policy Winds

Friendly stances toward crypto from Trump’s campaign team, signals from the US Congress pushing for a “Bitcoin Act” (aiming for the Treasury to acquire 1 million BTC over five years), all reinforce the perception of BTC as a strategic national asset. El Salvador has adopted BTC as legal tender, and Bhutan’s government has accumulated over 13,000 BTC through Druk Holding. Such government-level recognition provides new valuation support for BTC.

How to Identify Genuine Bull Market Signals

Not all price increases indicate sustainable bull markets. A true bull market should have several features:

On-Chain Data Confirmation

• Exchange-held coins reach new lows (indicating institutional accumulation, not panic selling)
• Increase in long-term holder addresses (a sign of accumulation phase)
• Surge in stablecoin inflows into exchanges (foreshadowing large buy orders)
• Growth in active wallets and on-chain transfer volume

In 2024, these indicators are flashing green: wallet addresses exceed 55 million, total stablecoin supply surpasses $300 billion, with a large portion entering exchanges awaiting deployment.

Technical Resonance

RSI rising above 70 often signals strong upward momentum; when BTC crosses above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, it confirms a bullish trend. Currently near $87K, these two moving averages have formed a “golden cross,” providing relatively solid support.

Sentiment and Engagement

A surge in social media mentions, enthusiasm from new entrants, and public declarations of institutional positioning—these are the “thermometers” of a bull market. When #Bitcoin trends on major platforms and mainstream financial channels discuss “the next ten-bagger,” it’s both a signal of opportunity and a warning of risk.

Hidden Risks Not to Be Overlooked

Inevitable Profit-Taking

From $40K to $87K, early entrants have realized substantial gains. Negative news (regulatory statements, macroeconomic deterioration) could trigger these holders to sell. Historically, bull markets have experienced 15-30% corrections along the way, and this cycle won’t be an exception.

FOMO and Leverage Liquidations

New retail investors often lack risk awareness. The number of traders using 3x or 5x leverage has increased significantly. Once the market moves against them, they face liquidation. Data from multiple exchanges in 2024 shows large leveraged positions being liquidated frequently around $89K and $91K.

Regulatory Uncertainty

While the US stance has become more friendly, markets in the EU, Japan, Singapore, and others remain tightening. Any regulatory document aimed at “strengthening crypto risk management” could trigger a rapid 5-10% drop.

Macroeconomic Drag

Federal Reserve policies, inflation data, recession expectations—these factors influence not only BTC but overall investor risk appetite. If signs of an economic downturn in the US emerge, BTC, often seen as a “risk asset king,” could be swiftly sold off for cash.

Advice for Different Investors

Long-Term Holders (1 year+)

While the current price at $87K has risen, considering historical halving cycles, there’s still considerable upside potential over the next 12 months. Dollar-cost averaging and phased accumulation can smooth entry points. Prioritize security: use hardware wallets, enable 2FA, and avoid storing large sums on exchanges.

Short-Term Traders (weeks to months)

Support levels are around $82-85K, resistance at $92-95K. Key is setting stop-loss orders—if price falls below $80K, exit quickly; if it breaks $95K, consider chasing but control position size. Keep an eye on weekly US stock market openings (BTC correlates strongly with Nasdaq) and monthly US CPI releases.

New Investors

Avoid leverage. Choose reputable, regulated platforms (like Gate.io and top-tier exchanges). Focus on BTC spot trading rather than perpetual contracts. Start small—earn $100 first, then $1,000, and get familiar with market psychology before taking larger positions.

Catalysts for the Next Bull Market

Key Events in 2025

• Next halving expected in 2028, but market psychology will be influenced by ongoing management of the halving expectations
• Rumors of BTC inclusion in pension benchmark indices are increasing
• Progress of the Bitcoin City project in El Salvador
• Evolution of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and their competition with BTC

Technical Imagination

Once the OP_CAT upgrade is approved, BTC’s on-chain capabilities could support more complex smart contracts and Layer-2 scaling, potentially increasing transaction throughput from the current 7 tx/s to thousands. This could open new possibilities for BTC in DeFi, challenging Ethereum’s dominance.

Final Advice

Bitcoin’s bull cycle is real but cannot be precisely predicted. The current $87K price is neither the “last chance to buy” nor a “dangerous high”—it’s just a point in the cycle.

The key points are:

1. Learn from history: Understand how 2013, 2017, and 2021 evolved to avoid repeating mistakes (blindly following trends, ignoring risks)
2. Manage risks: Whether bullish or bearish, always reserve sufficient buffers. The easiest way to get wiped out is by “chasing highs without stop-losses”
3. Stay rational: When everyone is shouting “BTC will break $200K,” it’s often the most dangerous signal. When greed indexes are at extremes, it’s usually the prelude to a bear market
4. Keep learning: Crypto policies, technology, and sentiment evolve rapidly. Subscribe to authoritative news sources, participate in community discussions, and track on-chain data—these are essential skills for becoming a successful investor

Bitcoin will not disappear, and the next bull market will surely come. The question is: are you prepared for it?